Swiss Keegs' ACC Preview

Happy New Year. I’m releasing my third annual ACC Preview a little later than usual given that I was woefully behind on my Christmas shopping and was hoping for some definitive (and encouraging) news on Kyrie Irving’s toe. While I have had many fewer opportunities to watch teams aside from Duke than in past years, I figured I’d keep the tradition alive and make some (less informed/researched) predictions.

Not a terrible forecast a season ago, although it would have turned out better had I not been spooked enough by Maryland’s loss to William & Mary (which turned out to be a respectable 22-11 team) the night before my forecast to move them down from an outright second place finish to a thee-way tie with UNC and Clemson. Still, I was much more bullish on the Terps than the AP, which had predicted an underwhelming fifth place finish for a tough and seasoned Maryland squad.

Obviously the media and I both overestimated how well Carolina would perform. It’s easy to forget that the Heels had November wins over both Ohio State and Michigan State and lost by just two in Lexington. I did caveat my forecast with the following: “The gap between projected second place Carolina and eighth place Virginia Tech is modest, and I would not be shocked if those two teams ended up reversed in the standings.”

My predicted win totals were generally within a game or two of reality, which was not an awful result given how balanced the league was a season ago and the frequency of upset wins. Last place Miami reached the ACC Tournament semis and 7-9 Georgia Tech the final…that’s the sort of season it was.

School	Keegs Forecast	Media Forecast	Actual Record	Win Variance
Duke	13-3	1^st (tie)	13-3	---
UNC	10-6	1^st (tie)	5-11	(5)
Maryland	10-6	5^th	13-3	3
Clemson	10-6	3^rd	9-7	(1)
Georgia Tech	9-7	4^th	7-9	(2)
Wake Forest	8-8	6^th	9-7	1
Florida State	8-8	7^th	10-6	2
Virginia Tech	8-8	8^th	10-6	2
Miami	6-10	10^th	4-12	(2)
N.C. State	5-11	12^th	5-11	---
Boston College	5-11	9^th	6-10	1
Virginia	4-12	11th	5-11	1

I’m operating under the assumption that Irving, the most talented player in the league, will miss the remainder of the season. We should have an update this week but all indications suggest he will be out several months. That takes Duke from a dominant team that would be likely favored by double digits in all but 3-4 conference games and that was looking at something like a 15-1 conference record to a team that – while still the most talented in the conference – could struggle to score on certain nights when perimeter shots are not dropping. That being said, I’m hard-pressed to see more than 3-4 losses in conference play for the Devils. There are some really weak teams at the bottom of the league this season and Duke should take care of business in 7-8 games at Cameron.

Unlike a season ago when the league was characterized by extreme parity beyond Duke and Maryland, I think there are a few distinct tiers in terms of talent level and experience this year. Duke still merits its own tier sans Irving, while Carolina, FSU and maybe Maryland form a second tier of quality basketball teams that should make the NCAA tourney but still possess some holes. The next group includes Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Boston College – each of these teams could win anywhere from six to ten ACC games – followed by Clemson and UVA. Georgia Tech and Wake are very, very bad, although Wake has some nice young talent.

In general, I’m on the same page as the media this year. However, I think Miami and B.C. can finish higher than 8^th and 10^th, respectively, and Clemson has not done enough to show me it’s more than a 6- or maybe 7-win team. If you want a couple sleepers to finish in the top two or three in the standings, I think both N.C. State and Miami have the talent to surprise people. As an early barometer (albeit based on a small sample size) for how several of the teams stack up, six ACC programs have played UNC-Greensboro this season with the following margins of victory – Duke 46 (the only team to play in Greensboro), Maryland 43, FSU 24, Virginia Tech 22, Clemson 10, Wake 2.

School	Keegs Forecast	Media Forecast
Duke	14-2	1^st
UNC	11-5	3^rd
Florida State	10-6	5^th
Maryland	9-7	6^th
Virginia Tech	9-7	2^nd
N.C. State	8-8	4^th
Miami	8-8	8^th
Boston College	8-8	10^th
Clemson	6-10	7^th
Virginia	6-10	11^th
Georgia Tech	4-12	9^th
Wake Forest	3-13	12^th

The loss of Irving is a major blow. Through the first quarter of the season, I believe he performed like the ACC Player of the Year and potential first-team All-American. Fortunately, Duke was loaded so without the talented freshman point guard they are simply less loaded. The Devils should still finish atop the ACC standings, but their odds of repeating as national champs probably fall from something like 4:1 to 8:1 if Irving does not return before postseason play.

While Duke has not played a quality opponent since Irving’s injury, the impact of his absence on the offensive end has been obvious. Duke now looks a bit more like the 2009-10 version – slower tempo, less penetration, more shots from long range – than the up-tempo, highly-efficient, balanced, Irving-led offense that was among the nation’s leaders in points per game and field goal percentage. There will be far fewer easy baskets without Irving’s ability to create easy looks in transition or get into the lane at will in the half-court.

On the bright side, Duke still has plenty of things to be excited about. Mason Plumlee has developed into a legitimate (if inconsistent and occasionally confounding) post presence, averaging 7.9 points, 7.5 boards, 1.4 blocks and shooting 58% from the floor. More importantly, he’s excelled against the highest quality opponents, averaging 13.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and more than four steals per contest against Marquette, Kansas State, Michigan State and Butler. The younger Plumlee tends to disappear for stretches, lacks a developed post game, and frequently finds himself out of position on defense, but his tremendous size and athleticism, along with improving confidence and feel for the game, make him a valuable asset with almost unlimited upside.

Like Plumlee, Andre Dawkins has made a major sophomore leap. Dawkins struggled to crack the regular rotation as a freshman, but his sweet stroke from deep has never been in doubt and this year he’s seizing the opportunity provided with consistent minutes. Dawkins is scoring 11.9 points a game and shooting an impressive 57% from the field and 53% from downtown (many of the “way downtown” variety). Dawkins is a underrated athlete (if you haven’t seen his performances in the Blue-White Game slam dunk competitions you’d probably be surprised by his explosiveness) and a born scorer. He has also improved his mid-range game and decision-making and gone from a liability to a positive contributor on defense.

Everyone is familiar with what seniors Kyle Singler (17.8 points, 5.6 boards, 1.4 steals per game) and Nolan Smith (17.8 points, 5.7 assists) bring to the table, so I won’t spend too much time on them. I’d still like to see the versatile Singler look to score more going to the basket – 43% of his field goal attempts have come from three. With some improved shot selection, he should shoot closer to 50% from the field (versus 47% this season and 42% last) given his ability to finish closer to the rim. Smith will be expected to expand his ball-handling responsibilities in Irving’s absence. He is a more natural off guard, and struggled at various points throughout his career when asked to run the offense. Smith is surprisingly averaging an ACC-best 5.7 assists – nearly twice as many as last year’s 3.0 – but also an unacceptable 3.2 turnovers.

Given that Smith is best-suited to a scoring guard role, Seth Curry (8.3 points, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals) should see increased action at the point. Curry is not an extremely adept ball-handler and lacks the quickness to create opportunities for others off the dribble. However, he makes quality decisions and his presence will allow Smith to come off screens looking to score and not exert so much energy as he would as the primary ball-handler for 30+ minutes. I expect Curry’s shooting touch to improve with more consistent minutes – his stroke is too pretty not to. His defense has also been a pleasant surprise. Curry is not in the same class talent-wise as older brother Steph (not many are) but is more than an adequate third guard who should only get better as he adjusts to playing games that matter after having last season off following his transfer from Liberty.

The 6’10” duo of Miles Plumlee (6.0 points, 5.0 boards, 57% shooting) and Ryan Kelly (5.8 points, 1.4 blocks) provide depth up front. Plumlee, like younger brother Mason, is playing with increased confidence this year. While he lacks his brother’s natural talent, he is extremely athletic in his own right and has been attacking the rim of late. Plumlee has also improved his defensive positioning and rebounding. Kelly has improved his strength and conditioning and has more frequently displayed the shooting touch that allowed him to win the McDonalds All-America Game three-point contest a couple years ago (he is 8-for-18 on threes). Kelly’s development will be critical as teams feel like they can lay off the Plumlees and focus on extending the defensive on perimeter scorers when both brothers are in the game together.

The bottom line is this team is at least as well-positioned as last year’s roster to make a championship run – even if Irving is not able to return. It has more offensive weapons, more athleticism, and is probably a better all-around defensive team than a season ago. With Irving out of the equation, Singler and Smith will have to play at an even higher level than they have – they are fully capable of doing so, but it will be difficult to beat high quality opponents unless the two veterans are productive on both ends of the court on a given night. As for conference play, I see the most challenging games coming on the road versus Virginia Tech, Carolina, FSU, N.C. State and Maryland.

Strengths: Defense, three-point shooting (44%), depth, senior leadership, athleticism, free-throw shooting (74%)

Aside from Duke, no team has really distinguished itself in non-conference play. I’m going with the Tar Heels here based on raw talent (especially in the frontcourt) and the fact that they’ve been playing better in recent weeks, including a win over top-15 Kentucky. On the other hand, the win versus the Wildcats was their only victory in five games versus teams in the RPI top 50. I still have major concerns about the backcourt – they struggle with perimeter shooting, ball-handling (almost as many turnovers as assists on the year), and are mediocre defensively. While each guard on the roster has material flaws, there’s enough young talent here that I bet a couple players from this group emerge and the team’s chemistry and offensive efficiency improve by February.

Incumbent point guard Larry Drew III (4.7 points, 4.1 assists per game) has been even less effective than a season ago, as his numbers are down across the board. Never a legitimate offensive threat, Drew is shooting just 36% from the floor and has hit just four of 28 threes. I expect Drew to lose minutes to other more athletic and talented perimeter players as the season goes on. 6’4” sophomore Dexter Strickland (9.4 points, 1.6 steals) has been playing well of late, scoring almost 15 per contest in his last four and shooting an excellent 53% for the year. Fellow soph Leslie McDonald (7.6 points) has been the Heels most productive perimeter shooter, connecting on 43% of his three-point attempts this year. McDonalds All-American swingman Reggie Bullock (7.3 points in 14.0 minutes) has the ability to score as well, but has been highly inconsistent. I haven’t seen enough of him to have a strong view, but highly-touted freshman guard Kendall Marshall may be the Heels’ best bet at the point. He is a pass-first point man (his 4.0 dimes a game is 5^th in the league despite just playing 14.5 minutes on average), but is also a respectable shooter with decent quickness.

Up front, UNC has a trio of talented players that complement each other reasonably well. 7’0” Tyler Zeller is finally healthy, has been the Heels’ most consistently productive player, and is playing at an All-ACC level (14.9 points, 7.9 boards, 1.3 blocks). John Henson lacks strength and is not that effective in the half court offense, but the athletic 6’10” sophomore crashes the boards (8.8 per contest) and offers a shot-blocking presence (2.6 swats a game). The third frontcourt starter is 6’8” freshman Harrison Barnes (12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds), a player who disappointed Coach K and the Cameron Crazies by electing to lace ‘em up in Chapel Hill rather than Durham. Barnes entered school with extreme hype – including being the first freshman ever selected to the AP’s preseason first-team All-American team. Barnes has failed to live up to the lofty expectations – while he is second on the team in scoring, he has shot just 37% overall and less than 30% from three and looked lost at times. Barnes is not going to make any All-American teams this year, but he is a talented, versatile player that will develop as the season goes on.

I think this team is a year away from returning to national contender status. Almost no one in the rotation has really been battle-tested and they lack the offensive firepower of past years to offset their typical pedestrian defensive capability (although I think this team has the potential to be a better than average UNC team defensively). I can’t think of a team that made a deep NCAA tourney run that had so many questions in the backcourt. Still, they should get their chance as they are the best bet aside from Duke to finish over .500 in ACC play.

Strengths: Frontcourt talent/size, perimeter depth, offensive rebounding (2^nd in league with 13.7 a night)

Weaknesses: Perimeter scoring/play-making, frontcourt depth, experience/leadership, free-throw shooting (league-worst 64%)

The Seminoles once again have one of the top defensive teams in the nation, holding teams to just 34% shooting (best in the ACC). They are led at both ends of the court by 6’9” Chris Singleton. The reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Singleton has picked up his offensive game in his junior season, averaging 14.9 points and shooting 39% from beyond the arc. One of the best defensive forwards to come into the league in a long time, Singleton can guard four positions and averages more than two blocks and steals per contest to go along with 8.2 rebounds.

Senior combo guard Derwin Kitchen is 6’4”, long, and versatile. Kitchen (10.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals) has a nice mid-range game and is shooting a career-high 50% from the floor. Lithuanian gunner Deividas Dulkys is the ‘Noles most reliable outside threat, shooting 37% from deep and averaging two threes per game after making 71 threes on 40% shooting a year ago. 6’5”, 225 lb. sophomore Michael Snaer can also knock down shots from long range; his scoring and field goal percentage are down a bit from a solid rookie campaign, but he’s still shooting the three at a 41% clip.

While the ‘Noles are deep in the backcourt and on the wings, they do not receive much production from their bigs. If FSU is going to compete for a top ACC tournament seed, they’ll need 6’10”, 240 lb. Bernard James to be a positive contributor in the post. James, a 25-year old JUCO transfer who spent time in Iraq during a 6-year Air Force stint, is scoring 7.1 points on 62% shooting, grabbing 5.7 boards, and swatting 2.1 shots per game in just 18 minutes. If he can expand that production to 25-28 minutes as he did in a recent double-double effort against a solid Baylor team, he will be a force in his final 1.5 seasons of eligibility. 6’11” junior Xavier Gibson (6.9 points, 4.8 boards) and talented 6’8” freshman Okaro White (6.8 points, 53% shooting) provide depth up front, but are pretty raw.

FSU really has only one high quality win to date (a 68-61 victory in Tallahassee versus #15 Baylor), but each of its three losses have been to teams that have been ranked in the top 10 at some point this year (Ohio State, Florida, Butler). They are a good bet to win 9+ ACC games and get an NCAA tournament bid given that they’ll consistently hold opponents to 55-65 points. To compete for the ACC crown, however, James and White will have to make big strides and the team will have to find a way to mix in some easy baskets.

Strengths: All-around defense, rebounding (league-high 8.3 rebounding margin per game), backcourt depth

Weaknesses: Ball-handling (league-high 17.4 turnovers per game), low-post and half-court scoring

I’ve put the Terps this high based primarily on two factors – the presence of the ACC’s most dominant big man in Jordan Williams (18.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks a game, 57% shooting) and Gary Williams’ knack for producing results that consistently exceed expectations. It’s a consistent theme across all of the teams in the league this year aside from Duke, but the Terps lack any really quality wins – their 23-point victory at Penn State is Maryland’s only win over a team in the RPI top 100. Nevertheless, they battled Pitt, Illinois and Temple reasonably well, and look like a likely top 50 team/NCAA bubble team.

The Terps have a core group of seasoned and solid – if unspectacular – perimeter players supporting Williams. 6’6” senior Cliff Tucker has increased his production while playing meaningful minutes for the first time (11.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists). Fellow senior Adrian Bowie has taken over primary ball-handling responsibilities following the graduation of Greivis Vasquez and is averaging 8.8 points a game with excellent shooting percentages (53% from the field, 91% from the line, 39% from deep). Bowie is a fine role player and distributor (3.9 dimes a game), but – like Tucker – is not a high-level ACC play-maker. 6’4” Sean Mosley has seen his production dip across the board as a junior, but should improve on his 8.8 points and 3.8 boards a game. 6’7”, 230 lb. senior Dino Gregory (7.6 points, 6.0 boards, 1.8 blocks, 1.2 steals) is the only player with size in the rotation aside from Williams and another reliable role player that never played real minutes until this season.

Freshman guard Terrell Stoglin is scoring 10.8 points a game on 47% shooting (including 40% from downtown) in just 18 minutes a contest. He’s been seeing progressively more minutes and I’d expect him in the 27-30 minute range by season’s end given the Terps’ lack of offensive firepower. Another freshman guard, 6’1” Pe’Shon Howard (4.6 points, 2.9 assists), is more of a distributor than a scorer.

Strengths: The Williamses (Jordan and Gary), experienced nucleus, defensive tenacity

Weaknesses: Perimeter play-making and shooting, frontcourt depth, free-throw shooting (64%)

I had serious doubts about Tech as a top-25 team before they lost senior guard Dorenzo Hudson, coming off a third-team All-ACC campaign, for the season with a broken foot. Now they are a certifiable bubble team. Sure, they have a solid veteran inside-outside duo in Malcolm Delaney (ACC-high 19.7 points and 4.0 assists per game and 43% shooting from three, unanimous first-team All-ACC a season ago) and Jeff Allen (12.4 points and 9.5 rebounds a game, leads all active ACC players in career boards and steals). They also return six of the top eight men in their rotation (all but J.T. Thompson and Hudson) from a team that finished a surprising 10-6 in ACC play a season ago. That continuity, along with hard-nosed defense, experience, and a volume scorer in Delaney, should allow Tech finish in the upper half of the conference again and compete for an invite to the NCAA tourney.

However, this team has not impressed to date. The Hokies are 1-3 against the RPI top 50 and began ACC play by suffering a bad loss at home to UVA. Someone will need to step up as a consistent third scorer in Hudson’s absence – most likely 6’4” sophomore Erick Green (8.3 points, 1.8 steals per game). Delaney will also need to cut down on the 4.3 turnovers a game he’s committing. It will also be interesting to see how Delaney holds up physically if he continues to play 39.2 minutes per game – nearly five more than any other player in the conference and what would be the most any ACC player has averaged in the modern era. Seth Greenberg doesn’t like to use his bench much – four Tech starters are among the top seven in the league in minutes played. 6’8” and 6’7” forwards Victor Davila and Terrell Bell are limited offensively, but combine for nearly 12 boards and 2.5 blocks per game.

Weaknesses: Perimeter shooting (33% from three), offensive efficiency, size, wing talent

N.C. State fans had high hopes for this season given a top-10 recruiting class and the return of starters Tracy Smith, Javier Gonzalez, and Scott Wood. However, the freshmen have been inconsistent and inefficient, and the Pack suffered a major blow when Smith suffered a knee injury in the second game of the season. The burly 6’8”, 255 lb. forward is expected back by the ACC opener against Wake, but has missed important early-season reps with his new teammates and it remains to be seen how the knee will hold up following surgery. Smith is one of the ACC’s top returning players, having averaged 16.5 points and 7.3 boards last season, and is a load to handle in the paint. If he can return close to 100%, the Pack will have as much talent as anyone in the league aside from Duke.

State’s three heralded freshmen have shown glimpses of their potential early on but – not surprisingly – have been highly inconsistent game to game. Athletic 6’8” forward C.J. Leslie, the 11^th-ranked player in his class according to Scout.com, is averaging 10.3 points, 7.9 boards and 2.0 blocks a game. One of the top-rated point guards in the class, Ryan Harrow (10.7 points, 3.3 assists) leads the ACC with 2.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He is coming off the bench behind the Gonzalez (6.2 points, 2.3 assists) but is still getting the majority of the minutes at the point. 6’5” Lorenzo Brown has demonstrated an impressive, well-rounded game (10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals per game). On the negative side, each of three is shooting 42% or less from the field – Leslie shot a combined 2-for-20 in losses to Wisconsin and Arizona.

Wood, a 6’7” sophomore, is the kind of sharpshooter State has lacked in recent years. He’s scoring 11.3 points a game to lead the team, plays a solid floor game, and is hitting 43% of his shots from long range. 6’8”, 260 lb. sophomore Richard Howell provides bulk up front, and has been very productive off the bench (8.1 points, 6.1 boards, 55% shooting in 17.3 minutes a game). 6’9” DeShawn Painter (6.8 points, 5.3 rebounds per game) rounds out the rotation.

It is really difficult to gauge just how good this team is with Smith in street clothes for the meat of State’s non-conference schedule. The Pack was blown out by Wisconsin and Georgetown and lost by ten at home to a quality – but not great – Arizona team. However, they battled top-5 Syracuse on the road in a six-point loss and handled an always-tough George Mason squad by 13. With Duke, UNC, and FSU each home and away, the schedule plays against the Pack’s odds of a high ACC tourney seed. On nights when Wood’s shot is not falling, State may find it difficult to score in half-court sets and defenses sag into the paint given the lack of a second legitimate outside threat. Still, there are reasons for optimism with Smith’s return and possibly their most overall talent in more than a decade.

Weaknesses: Offensive consistency, perimeter shooting (33% from three), lack of ability to force turnovers

Miami had to be one of the best 4-12 teams in ACC history last season, and demonstrated their potential by pushing Duke in the ACC tourney semis without leading scorer and rebounder Dwayne Collins. After watching that game, as well as the Hurricanes’ impressive wins over Wake and Virginia Tech in Greensboro, I thought Miami would have a chance to be the second best team in the ACC this season. I still believe that is possible, although this team seems prone to major let-down performances (like its 61-45 loss to Rutgers in November) since it relies so heavily on three players.

Miami’s starting backcourt is one of the best – not only in the ACC, but also nationally. Junior Malcolm Grant has really elevated his game and is having an All-ACC caliber season. Talented sophomore backcourt mate Durand Scott has also improved efficiency offensively. Grant is scoring 15.9 points and Scott 13.5 points a night, while both also dish more than 3.5 assists a game, shoot 85%+ from the line and 45%+ from distance.

6’10”, 300+ lb. Reggie Johnson is a load on the block and has been very productive in increased minutes from his freshman season a year ago. Johnson scores 12.1 points on 57% shooting, grabs 9.9 boards, and blocks 1.2 shots a game in fewer than 23 minutes a contest. Given his size, endurance and frequent foul trouble, Johnson is unlikely to see more than 23-25 minutes a game, limiting his impact, but he’s about as productive a big man as there is in the ACC when he’s on the court.

The ‘Canes are pretty thin beyond their top three, however. 6’7”, sixth-year senior Adrian Thomas scores 8.5 points per game but shoots just 37% from the floor and is not a particularly strong rebounder or defender. 6’6” wings Garrius Adams and DeQuan Jones combine for just over 12 points a game in 40+ minutes. As a result, Miami will go as the big three of Grant, Scott and Johnson go.

Strengths: Backcourt duo, defense (40% shooting and 67 points per game allowed), free-throw shooting (74%), offensive rebounding

Weaknesses: Depth, scoring options, interior presence when Johnson is out of the game

With the veteran trio of Reggie Jackson (18.8 points, 4.7 assists, 54% shooting), Joe Trapani (13.3 points, 6.1 boards), and Corey Raji (11.4 points, 6.3 rebounds) – each of whom ranks in the top 10 in career scoring among active ACC players) – the Eagles can score with just about anyone in the league. However, they give up a lot of easy baskets and lack a tough, physical inside presence.

Jackson, a talented, strong, 6’3”junior guard, has really elevated his game. A 28% career three-point shooter, he has nailed 29 of 59 attempts this year and is shooting an excellent 54% overall. He’s looking like he can play at the next level. Senior guard Biko Paris has also improved his efficiency on the offensive end, contributing 10.9 points and 3.2 assists a game and shooting 43% on threes. Senior forwards Trapani and Raji complement each other well – the 6’8” Trapani is a skilled finesse player with a nice touch, while the 6’6” Raji is a tough, physical player that has been one of the best offensive rebounders in the league for years. 6’10”, 263 lb. senior Josh Southern scores 8.6 points a game on 67% shooting in just 20 minutes a night.

I had relatively high hopes for the Eagles a year ago because of largely the same well-rounded, experienced collection of players. They ended up underachieving a season ago, and it’s difficult to love them given their defensive deficiencies, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see things come together for B.C. to the tune of something like a 10-6 record in conference play. Then again, they could just as easily be 6-10 again if they don’t find a way to get more consistent stops.

Strengths: Offensive balance and efficiency, league-low 10.3 turnovers per game, free-throw shooting (75%), experienced nucleus

Weaknesses: Defensive toughness (last in league in both steals and blocks), rebounding (only ACC team to be out-rebounded on the year)

The Tigers are led by seniors Demontez Stitt (12.8 points, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals) and Jerai Grant (12.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 2.4 blocks, 62% shooting). ACC fans will be familiar with Stitt, a four-year regular, but the 6’8”, 230 lb. Grant is capitalizing on his first opportunity to start with a fine season to date. Stitt and 5’9” Andre Young (10.9 points, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 43% from three) form a serviceable backcourt and are the Tigers only real threats to score from downtown. The frontcourt, however, is uncharacteristically thin for the Tigers. 6’9” sophomore Milton Jennings (8.8 points, 5.7 boards), is not particularly effective on either end of the floor. Fellow sophomore Devin Booker (Trevor’s younger bro) has his brother’s frame (6’8”, 245 lb.) but not his game (7.6 points, 5.3 boars, 50% shooting) or athleticism.

This team will hang around more talented teams due to their strong defense, but they will be hard-pressed to put up more than 65 points most nights, and therefore struggle to finish .500 in conference play this year.

Strengths: Defense (ACC-best 59.3 points against, 16.2 turnovers forced per game)

Weaknesses: Offensive firepower, perimeter shooting (33% from three), athleticism

UVA is a program headed in the right direction. While the Cavaliers have seemingly been rebuilding for the better part of a decade, they’ve exceeded expectations on the court thus far (particularly in wins at Minnesota and Virginia Tech) despite multiple unfortunate injuries. Senior forward and All-Conference candidate Mike Scott (15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds a game) is recovering from ankle surgery, but the Cavs appear to have dodged a bullet there and Scott is expected back soon. Senior point guard Sammy Zeglinski (5.0 points, 2.2 assists, just 28% shooting) missed the first seven games of the year after injuring his knee during a preseason workout. Finally, 6’9” Will Sherrill (6.0 points, 4.1 boards, 12-for-25 on threes) missed five games with a broken leg and is just getting back into game action.

Top 40-recruit K.T. Harrell has lived up to expectations (9.7 points, 41% shooting from downtown), while fellow freshman Joe Harris has probably exceeded them (9.5 point, 38% from deep). 6’4” senior Mustapha Farrakhan is second on the team in scoring with 10.9 points a night, but has been a low-percentage shooter throughout his career and this season has been no different (less than 40% from the field, 31% from three). 5’11” sophomore Jontel Evans (5.5 points, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals) is the last noteworthy player in the rotation but is also not an efficient scorer and will likely see his minutes decline with Zeglinski back in the mix.

While UVA has shown some nice character battling through injuries and achieving some nice results against more talented teams, they are averaging just 63 points a game – by far the worst in the league – and shooting 42% from the field. Those numbers don’t seem likely to improve in ACC play, making wins difficult to come by. Still, the Cavs already have one conference win under their belt and can probably manage 4-5 more assuming Scott doesn’t miss too much additional time.

Strengths: Inside play of Scott, defensive rebounding (surprisingly the Cavs corral a league-best 72% of defensive-rebounding opportunities), ball-handling (just 11.4 turnovers per game)

Weaknesses: Offensive weapons/efficiency, youth, lack of shot-blocking threat, perimeter defense

The early departures of athletic big men Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal left the cupboard relatively bare for the Yellow Jackets. 6’5” junior point guard Iman Shumpert has never really lived up to expectations – while he’s averaging a career-high 14.8 points and 5.5 boards, he’s assisting on a career-low 3.1 baskets a game and shooting career lows overall (38%) and from deep (21%). One of the best defensive guards in the conference (2.6 steals a game), Shumpert is being asked to do a lot offensively given the Jackets’ lack of any real post threat. Sophomore wing Glen Rice Jr. (11.7 points, 5.0 rebounds a game) is the second option offensively. Rice is a promising scorer, although not the player his namesake was and has struggled from distance in his second season (27% from three, down from 47% last year).

Sophomores Brian Oliver (11.3 points, 5.2 rebounds) and Mfon Udofia (8.2 points, 1.3 steals) are hard-workers but each lacks a quality shooting touch (34% and 42% from the floor, respectively). Senior guard Maurice Miller (6.5 points, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals) may be the team’s best distributor, but also shoots less than 40% from the field. About the only size to speak of in the rotation is 6’11”, 258 lb. redshirt freshman Daniel Miller (5.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.8 blocks, 56% shooting). Miller has been an impact player defensively but is not ready to be an offensive contributor for the Jackets.

Bottom line is this Tech team is probably the least talented in the conference. They are clearly the least effective team on the offensive end, and will battle Wake for last place all year.

Weaknesses: Offensive talent and efficiency (ACC-low 41% from the floor), perimeter shooting (abysmal 26% on threes), lack of size

On the positive side, Wake has some legitimate young talent and should improve as the season goes on. Freshmen J.T. Terrell and Travis McKie have been as good as advertised, scoring 13.7 and 13.5 points a night, respectively – tops among ACC freshmen aside from Irving. Terrell has already proven his ability to pile up points against quality competition, scoring 32 against Iowa and 27 versus Xavier, and is shooting an impressive 43% from downtown. The 6’7” McKie plays bigger than his 205 lb. frame, grabbing 8.4 boards and getting about a block and steal per game.

6’4” guard Gary Clark (11.8 points, 57% shooting and an amazing 25-for-37 on threes) is the only senior playing meaningful minutes – he never averaged more than 10 minutes a game previously. Junior 7-footer Ty Walker is averaging an ACC-best 3.8 blocks per game (including an 11-swat performance against Marist) in just over 23 minutes, but only provides 4.2 points and 4.7 boards a game. Sophomores Ari Stewart and C.J. Harris also score double-figures. Stewart is a solid 6’7” slasher while Harris dishes 4.2 assists per game and shoots 42% from deep. The arrow is definitely pointing up for the Deacons, but it will be a bumpy ride this year. Wake is the only sub-.500 ACC team and has suffered losses to the likes of Stetson, VCU, and Presbyterian.

Strengths: Multiple scoring options, high-upside young talent, free-throw shooting (ACC-best 76%), three-point shooting (43%), Walker’s shot-blocking

Weaknesses: Overall defense, ball-handling (league-worst negative 4.2 turnover margin), inexperience/leadership