Florida State 77
Duke 76

January 6, 2002.  

Leon County Civic Center.   

 Putting aside the all-too-predictable wailing and gnashing of teeth that can be heard from Duke fans across the country, it's clear and has been clear  for much of the season that Duke has one significant flaw.  No, it's not foul shooting, which admittedly was the superficial reason for Duke's loss. To be frank, Duke should not have been in a position where they had to depend on foul shots to win.  Nor is it rebounding, which has been a problem at times but has always been an area where Duke is willing to run at a  deficit if it means using more pressure defense and an uptempo offense. Rather, the issue at hand is the cornerstone of Duke's plan: help defense. 

 There's no question that Duke has one of the quickest squads in the  country.  Chris Duhon, Jason Williams and Dahntay Jones all possess blazing speed, while Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy are usually quite able to keep up.  The concept for this team was to turn up on-ball pressure, which has been somewhat absent in recent years.  Duhon has bodied up and  intimidated a number of guards this year, but the very quick guards who have good ball control and who can finish have a shot against him.  Thus, we've seen players like Andre Barrett and Cliff Hawkins have success going to the basket against Duke.  The reason this has happened is that no one is responding in the frontcourt to rotate over and cut off the penetrator, or if they do it happens too late.  Duke's help D has been erratic this year-- in some games, it's been great, and Duke has piled up charges as a result. But since the Kentucky game, teams have been using the same game plan: spread the court, attack Duke's pressure directly by having a quick point guard go off the dribble and either pull up, drive all the way or dish to an open shooter.  The key here is make as few passes as possible so as to avoid Duke flooding the passing lanes and getting easy steals.  Teams have used variations on this; some will pull up for short jumpers, some will wait til the help slowly comes over and go backdoor for easy baskets, some will go hard and draw fouls.  This strategy does not work if Duke is  rotating crisply and making quick switches.  The key to doing this is  constant communication, and the key to communication is having a leader "call the signals". 

 One can see where I'm going with this: the team is missing their defensive leader, Shane Battier.  The problem is that no single player will be able to provide his kind of leadership and defensive ability.  The frontcourt collectively must take on this responsibility.  Several players will have to step up and get everyone talking on defense.  I will not say that Duke's defense has been awful, that their intensity/heart/intangibles just "aren't there" as many might.  I will say that all of these factors have been inconsistent.  Duke showed plenty of heart against Kentucky.  Duke was extremely intense against Temple, Iowa and Michigan.  But the team needs to make a particular paradigm shift: Duke should win games with their defense, not their offense.  And this particular squad was pulling out the  tight games thanks to their amazing offensive firepower.    

 Consider the FSU game.  Duke allowed FSU to score 45 points in the  second half.  Duke missed all those free throws, but they were still up by 4.  FSU won because they took advantage of two significant defensive breakdowns by Duke in the waning moments of the game.  The first was  failing to switch off to break up a pick that resulted in a three, and the second was Dunleavy and Boozer failing to rotate over quickly enough to stop Monte Cummings from scoring.  If Duke had made either of these plays, they would have won the game.  If Duke had made any number of defensive plays, they could have won the game.  Contrast this game with  the NCAA game last year against UCLA.  Duke's offense was awful in the first ten minutes or so, yet they had a lead because their defense was strangling UCLA.  Duke won that game with defense.   

 FSU really needed to have a number of best-case scenarios to pull it out:  a less-than-stellar shooting performance for Duke (done, 40%), an advantage  on the boards (done, 46-36), the ability to take care of the ball (only 17  turnovers, matching Duke's total), and a reasonable shooting performance of  their own (45%).  The chances of any of these things happening seemed slim beforehand, but the fact that they all happened is a testament to the  belief Steve Robinson's players had in him.  It helps that his club has some solid veterans and some athletic youngsters.  Still, this club lost to American and Western Carolina--in terms of pure talent, Duke should have won by at least 20.  But by playing hard, staying within themselves, and exploiting Duke's weaknesses, they were able to pull it out. 

 Early on, they took a 4-0 lead to establish themselves.  Duke came back with a 7-0 run thanks to a Boozer drive, a Dunleavy stop-and-pop and a  Williams three.  But Duke went the next six minutes without scoring, as Dunleavy, Duhon and Williams couldn't buy a shot of any kind, but especially from three.  While the Noles could only build a 14-8 lead during this period, what was more important was that ten minutes had gone by and Duke hadn't buried them yet.  That fact alone gave them confidence that the game plan was working and that they had a shot to make this a game.    

 Duke responded with a Boozer stickback, a Williams steal and runout, and a Dan Ewing drive and dish to Dunleavy to make the score 16-15.  But the Devils could never take the lead back, a psychological edge that continued to give FSU confidence.  After a Nick Horvath basket with 6:11 left, FSU went on a 9-0 run capped off by a three.  FSU had a shocking 27-17 lead before Duke closed out the half with an 11-5 run.  Boozer started it by going  hard down low, hitting 3-4 from the line.  Williams picked up another steal and passed to Ewing in the corner, who hit a three.  On Duke's next  possession, Jason again dished, this time to Duhon for a long three.    

 Jason had played hard, but not well.  He was 2-8 from the filed with 4  turnovers but 3 steals.  Jones had blocked a couple of shots but also committed 2 quick fouls.  Other than Boozer's 7 rebounds, no one had more than 2 in the half.  Duke would need a quick burst at the beginning of the second half to try and take control of the game. 

 It didn't happen.  The first two minutes were essentially a draw as a Jason three was sandwiched by 2 FSU baskets.  Another Jason three  drew Duke to within 36-34, but the Noles then went on a 12-2 run, sparked by an Anthony Richardson three.  The fact that FSU was even taking these long-range shots, considering their normally awful percentage from three, spoke to how confident they were.  With about thirteen minutes left, Duke started to make a move, with Williams hitting back-to-back threes on  Duhon feeds and Chris getting one back from Jason.  The deficit was now just 5 points, but once again FSU struck back with an 8-0 run, again spotlighted by a three.  With over eight minutes left, Duke faced their  biggest deficit of the game at 58-45. 

 Duke managed to tie it up with a 16-3 run over the next couple of  minutes.  The run was testimony to Duke's frightening firepower when they get in rhythm and focused.  It started with Jason dishing to Casey Sanders for a three point play, though Casey missed the free throw.  Then came 3 three's in a row: Duhon to Williams, Ewing to Dunleavy and Ewing to Williams.  Dan was playing great ball, the best he's played in quite some time.  Williams got a steal and dished ahead to Ewing and then hit a falling-down three where he was fouled--but missed the free throw.  The score was 61-61 with over five minutes left. 

 FSU wasn't quite ready to cede control of the game yet, going on a 6-3 run interrupted by a Dunleavy three.  Ewing again made a difference, getting a stickback to make the score 67-66.  Then he hit another three in the corner on a Dunleavy pass to tie it up again at 69 with about three minutes left.  FSU scored again, but Jason passed to Carlos inside to knot it up at 71.  Duke's defense stiffened, and Boozer put them ahead 73-71 on free throws.  After a Delvon Arrington free throw made it 73-72 with over a minute left, Williams drove and found Dunleavy for what seemed to be a backbreaking three with less than a minute left.  A bad FSU possession led to Dunleavy getting fouled, but he missed 2 free throws and FSU hit a three to make it 76-75 Duke with thirty seconds left.  Duke inbounded and got it to Boozer, but he gave it up after no foul was called on him as FSU tried to get the ball.  Williams finally got the ball and went to the line, but missed 2 shots.  Cummings scored with 7 seconds left, Jason drove and had it batted back, and Dunleavy missed the tip.  FSU had played with poise and smarts in the last minute, and stole the game back from Duke.    

 Beyond the technical faults Duke has with its defense, I think there's another factor that will need to be addressed.  The 1992 team started out the season looking very strong, but nearly lost games against mediocre Clemson and Maryland squads.  The reason is that the team was playing like they wanted to be in the NCAA's right then, and didn't show the proper respect and attention their opponent deserved.  I think this team has shown a bit of NCA-itis.  They also at times play like they want to be up by 20 already instead of being patient and letting the score take care of itself. It must also be said that at times, this team plays beautiful and intense basketball, scoring from anywhere on the court.  There are times when the defense clicks as well, basically preventing their opponents from doing anything on the court.  The key is to maintain that intensity and focus at all times, and not having any senior leadership has been an impediment to achieving that goal.  But like the women's basketball team learned earlier when they lost to unranked Toledo, talent does not guarantee wins no matter who your opponent is.  It's a lesson that I think this team will take to  heart, because there have been few Duke players who hate to lose more than Jason Williams and Mike Dunleavy.  

  ** Negatives:

  1. Help defense.  I've talked about this in great detail, but this was the worst the team was at it the entire year.

  2. Fouling. I didn't talk about this much in the report but it was a significant problem.  Duke stopped playing defense with their feet and this resulted in players hacking because they were beaten to a spot.  This is why Christensen only played five minutes.

  3. Free throws.  An obvious problem, caused to some degree by Duke's other problems.  Williams and Dunleavy expended a lot of energy to get Duke back into the game, and they simply didn't have anything left at the line. Certainly, a good player should be able to make his foul shots when tired, but sometimes misses just happen.  The real problem was that Williams and Dunleavy were forced to do too much.   

  ** Positives:

  1. Resiliency.  There were a couple of times where it looked like FSU wanted to take control of the game with a big lead, but Williams, Dunleavy and Ewing wouldn't let it happen.  The fact that Duke got the lead at all shows how tough they can be.

  2. Second-half ball movement.  15 of Duke's 17 second-half field goals came by way of assist.  Duke expertly moved the ball around to find the best shot available.   

Player-by-Player:  

  ** Boozer: This game was a struggle for Carlos, who had to play through foul trouble and missed several easy shots.  Yet he played through it and made a number of contributions.  He had several key rebounds down the stretch when Duke had to have them.  His 2 foul shots with over a minute left gave Duke its first lead in quite some time.  He had also scored on the play prior to that as FSU tightened up on the perimeter.  The way he really hurt the team was with some bad fouls, like trying to body up a  player driving baseline when he already had 2 fouls.  When Carlos was in, Duke was able to catch up and rebound; when he was out, they were almost helpless in the post.  He missed some really easy shots, finishing below 50% in a game for the first time in a long while.  Sometimes this happens, though it would have been nice to see him go a little harder at the basket in an attempt to draw fouls.  Teams are going to key on him to get him in foul trouble, and he must be ready to deal with this.  To his credit, he played sensational basketball when he picked up his fourth foul.  

  ** Dunleavy: Mike had a rough shooting game and did not play well on defense, but also had several big shots.  The biggest was the three that put Duke up 4 with less than a minute left.  He also hit 2 other threes with less than seven minutes to go in the game after missing his first 7 attempts. He stepped up his rebounding in the second half, getting 5 crucial boards. His only real first half highlights were getting a couple of blocks and hitting a short jumper.  Mike's defense was not exceptional, which is different from earlier in the season when he was taking lots of charges and rotating well.      

  ** Sanders: Other than hitting a big basket in the second half, Casey looked helpless against FSU's frontline.  He did have a couple of blocks, but was constantly out of position on defense.  Duke really needed him to play like he did late last year, when he rebounded well and was a solid defender.  

  ** Williams: Truly a Jeckyl and Hyde game for Jason, who would follow up an amazing shot with a stupid turnover.  There is absolutely no question that without his 21 second half points, Duke wouldn't have been in a position to win the game.  Going 8 of 12 from three is simply ridiculous, especially since so many came in crucial situations with defenders draped all over him. Jason can be superhuman at times.  On the other hand, his 7 turnovers were careless mistakes that came simply through a lack of focus.  There is no question, however. that he is the team's heart and soul.  He said all the right things after the loss, vowing to remember it for the rest of the year. He also said he'd be practicing free throws the next morning.  Even Jason's mistakes are errors of commission, though I'd rather they come through him trying to make a great play than throwing it away on a careless play.  As for his foul shooting, writers are bringing up his 1-17 slump last year but failed to note that he responded in the NCAA's with great foul shooting. Jason will snap out of this streak as well.   

  ** Duhon: A rough shooting night (2-9) but not a bad floor game for Chris. His second half was great, with 6 assists and only 1 turnover.  As I mentioned earlier, his defensive problems here were not entirely his own fault.  But neither were all of them someone else's fault; he had only no steals on the night and few significant stops.  I'd also really love to see him penetrate more; it's OK for him to try to score every now and then, and it doesn't always have to be long-range.    

  ** Jones:  Without a doubt, his worst game at Duke.  Whereas against Davidson he came off the bench in a tight game to make a big difference because he looked relaxed but focused, here he looked tight.  He tried to do too much, and when he got into early foul trouble, it threw off his entire game.  I'm convinced that his foul trouble affected his defense, which was mostly ineffective in this game as Cummings and Joiner got whatever shots they wanted.  Georgia Tech has a ton of good perimeter players, and it will be Dahntay's chance to redeem himself a bit there.  

  ** Christensen:  Matt unfortunately reverted to his older form here, getting 2 quick fouls.  He also didn't have a single rebound and missed a couple of easy shots.  Matt's not being counted on for being a big contributor, but Duke really needed some kind of frontcourt boost from the bench, and he didn't provide it.    

  ** Ewing:  Coach K was searching for some kind of spark from the bench, and Ewing really provided it.  After a promising first half stint where he dished to Dunleavy for a basket off a drive and hit a late three, he was out there in crunch time in the second half.  He was part of a devastating three guard lineup that FSU simply couldn't defend, making all 3 of his second half shots.  One was a transition bucket, another a sensational tip-in, and the last a three that tied the game.  Dan had looked lost recently, half-stepping his way through some blowouts and often playing poorly on the road.  But he really stepped up to provide smart, aggressive play.  Don't be shocked if you see him replace Sanders in the starting lineup.  

  ** Horvath:  Nick had several good minutes, picking up a couple of boards and scoring on a loose ball pickup.  He moved well and only picked up a  single foul.  Not an astonishing performance by any means, but one to build on.                   

 Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu

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