 2002-2003
Record: 16-16, 6-10 ACC
2003
Round-Up:
In the last couple of seasons,
Virginia and UNC have been competing to see which program is more enigmatic. Both teams have been packed with talent at some
positions and glaring holes at others. Both
are capable of winning or losing to virtually any program in the country. And both have suffered chemistry problems and
crises of confidence regarding their coaches. We
all know how the story ended for Matt Doherty in Chapel Hill, but Pete Gillen lives to
coach another day. An amiable man who favors
an uptempo brand of basketball, his players have not always fit into what he wanted to do. Furthermore, there seemed to be a fundamental
disconnect between him and some of his players, indicative perhaps of the problems a coach
can face when his best recruiters go elsewhere after getting certain commitments. The bottom line is that his team bottomed out
after a 14-7 start, losing their next 7 consecutive games and guaranteeing a spot in the
NIT. Fans of this team had no idea how the
team would perform on a game by game basis, with shocking upsets following ugly losses and
vice versa.
Most of Virginia's problems weren't really new. There were questions in the post, where the
undersized but magnificent Travis Watson labored for four years. There were concerns at point, where the options
were erratic Keith Jenifer, smallish (6-0) shooter Todd Billet or returning-from-injury
Majestic Mapp. Smart teams found ways to
punish Virginia's flaws while dealing with their potent lineup of scorers. The team's chemistry issues and overall lack of
maturity led to some ugly losses. What should
have been a sure-fire NCAA team (even losing top guard Roger Mason, Jr to the pros) turned
out to be the most disappointing team in the ACC.
 Virginia's season started rather promisingly, with
a big upset win over Kentucky in Maui. Despite
subsequent losses to Indiana and Michigan State (both of played in an extremely physical
manner), the Hoos cruised to wins against Georgetown and Rutgers, along with some
creampuffs. A road loss versus a tough NC
State team was followed by an invigorating win against UNC.
That latter win had four Cavs in double figures and featured Billet lighting
up the Heels from outside. Virginia then gave
top-ranked Duke a fight on the road before falling in the last couple of minutes. Then came the first signs of trouble.
Virginia lost to a bad Clemson team in a one-point
game where the Cavs played awful defense. The
inability to shut down even the most offense-challenged teams in the country led to loss
after loss. The Hoos were last in the
conference in scoring defense, scoring margin, turnover margin and steals, and were
towards the bottom in FG% defense and blocked shots.
If an opponent could shut down just one or two of Virginia's best players,
they had a great chance to win. Things really
caved in with a loss at Virginia Tech, their archrival.
The Hokies were awful and yet handled the Wahoos with ease, 73-55. Virginia was outscored down the stretch by a
margin of 21-5.
That loss served as a wake-up call, just in time
for Wake. Mapp, returning after two years of
injuries, helped steady the team and led a defensive charge that shut down the Deacs in
the second half. This sparked a stretch where
Virginia won 4 out of 5, including impressive wins against Maryland and NC State. Virginia came from 12 down to beat Maryland on the
road, and then out-toughed State in an ugly game. With
team chemistry improving after Keith Jenifer was suspended (and later kicked off the
team), the Hoos were aiming for at least an 8-8 ACC finish.
Instead, the great slide began. A team that was shockingly inept on the road (2-11
for the year, with Maryland the only
significant win) dropped games against FSU and Ohio University. A mediocre Georgia Tech squad swept them, as did a
bad Clemson team. A pattern was developing
where Virginia looked lazy and disinterested early on, falling behind by double digits. The team would rally, only to break down
defensively when the game was on the line. Seven
losses later, the team rallied once again to beat Maryland in overtime. Little-used senior center Jason Rogers had a huge
game on Senior Day. What little momentum the
Hoos had was squashed by Duke in the ACC Tournament, an event in which Virginia has had
little success in recent years. At 15-15,
Virginia just made it into the NIT, beating Brown before losing on the road (of course) to
St John's.
This was a talented group that did not always play
like a team. Though the squad had rather
glaring flaws, a united front by the team and enormous effort could have made up for a lot
of them. Instead, Virginia played rather
indifferently at times. This was made
especially apparent when the Cavs really did show up to play, like in the Maryland games.
Chemistry, motivation and effort are coaching responsibilities, and it was clear that the
team was often lacking in these areas. Gillen
would make oblique comments about the team's lack of character, but these are players that
he brought in, ultimately leaving no one to blame but himself. We'll see how the program changes with the five
players who will be frosh this year.
Team MVP: Travis Watson
Best Wins: Kentucky, Wake Forest, Maryland (twice)
Worst Losses: Clemson (twice), Virginia Tech,
Ohio, @ Florida State
2004 Scouting
Report:
Who's Leaving: G Keith Jenifer (5.6 ppg, 104
assists), G Jermaine Harper (3.9 ppg), F Travis Watson (14.3 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 40 blocks), C
Nick Vander Laan (5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg), C Jason Rogers (2.8 ppg)
Who's Coming Back: G Todd Billet (13.5 ppg, 108
assists), G Majestic Mapp (2.4 ppg), G Billy Campbell (1.7 ppg), G Robert Lodge (1.2 mpg),
W Derrick Byars (6.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg), F Devin Smith (11.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg), F Jason Clark (4.7
ppg, 2.5 rpg), F/C Elton Brown (9.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
Who's New: G TJ Bannister (#115), G JR Reynolds
(#95), W Gary Forbes (#52), F Jason Cain (#139), F/C Donte Minter (#91), F Vince Redd (top
400)
Virginia took a number of hits in the
front court, with Watson being the most significant.
The bullish power player kicked butt against bigger players throughout his
career, and his senior year was no exception. Despite having to deal with gunners like
Billet and Smith on his team and point guard problems preventing him from getting the ball
in the best possible
locations, he still led his team in scoring and shot 52% from the field. Remarkably, the 6-8 forward also led his team in
rebounding (offensive and defensive), blocks, and steals.
Watson was third in assists (impressive for a player without much of a
handle) and even hit 7 threes! Replacing his
toughness, consistency and efficiency will be difficult.
Another player who left is Vander Laan, a transfer from Cal who came to UVa
ostensibly to allow Watson to play power forward. He
had only modest success as his low point totals will attest. His playing time dipped a bit as the season
progressed, so he decided to head to a Division II school to finish out his career. Rogers was a role player who grabbed a bit of
glory down the stretch, though that performance did make a lot of fans wonder "what
if"? The last departure was Jenifer, who
was first suspended and then later stripped of his scholarship. A bit of a loose cannon on and off the court,
Jenifer looked unstoppable in some games and completely unfamiliar with the game in
others. His quickness and slipperiness made
him tough to handle, but his bad jumpshot made him easy to guard. Still, on a roster filled with average athletes,
his quickness stood out.
Starting in the post this year will be Elton
Brown, a talented big man with more skills than Watson but not as much discipline. Despite his size, he only managed 4.3 rpg and was
sometimes lazy on defense. Still, if he
adjusts to the responsibility of being his team's best post player, he has a chance to put
up big numbers. He'll need to become more
physical if he wants to do so, though. The
other returning big is Jason Clark, an extremely athletic dunking machine who is perfectly
suited to play "power wing" in the ACC. He
was also very inconsistent but has enormous potential.
However, character issues have struck Virginia once again, as Clark was
suspended from the team for unspecified reasons. His
absence could really hurt the team on the floor, though perhaps not in the locker room. Frosh Minter is poised to help out right away in
the post. He's a strong rebounder who spent
an extra year in prep school, improving his profile, academics, body and skills. He's undersized at 6-8 but will still likely be
the team's top backup post player. Jason Cain
is probably more skilled but is a stick-like 6-9 and 205 lbs. I don't see him getting a ton of playing time as a
frosh. He's best known for his passing
ability. Lastly, football player Vince Redd
will be part of the team, though he's not a highly regarded basketball talent and will
likely be an athletic practice player.
Another rangy and athletic forward is Derrick
Byars, who is about the same height as Clark but much skinnier and more
perimeter-oriented. He shot a solid 38% from
three and could help out inside this season if he's put on some muscle. Devin Smith will see time at both wing and
off-guard, seeing as how he's an above-average rebounder for a guard and a good shooter
(39% from three). Gary Forbes will be a
player to watch for Virginia at wing and will likely get a lot of playing time. He's a superior athlete, good ballhandler and
adequate shooter who will be able to help at both 2 and 3.
Virginia really does have a nice group of guards. Along with Smith and Forbes, deadeye shooter Todd
Billet will provide some matchup problems. While not that quick or creative, Billet is the
kind of player that you must never leave open or give any space whatsoever for him to get
off his shot. He was forced to play at point
a lot last year, which cut down on his shot attempts, especially open looks. He will share leadership duties with Majestic
Mapp, who was one of the better stories in the league last year. After missing two full seasons with serious leg
injuries, he managed to play in 18 games last year. He
had his moments, but the rust on his game combined with the limitations of his body meant
that he wasn't a huge contributor. This will
be Mapp's last chance to play college basketball, and it would be tremendous if he's able
to attain some level of success. At his best,
he's the tough, heady leader that this team needs so badly.
While never spectacular, he can make the right plays at the right time. Also in the backcourt are scorer JR Reynolds and
point TJ Bannister. Reynolds can play both 1
and 2, though he's a natural off guard. He's
very strong and quick, and could earn a lot of playing time if he proves to be a solid
point guard. Bannister has a real chance of
decent playing time if he concentrates on defense and taking care of the ball.
In general, the frosh will be a big part of the
equation for the Hoos. All five have talent, but none of them are projected to be
immediate stars. Fortunately, they don't
really have to be this year. Instead, they
must be solid subs who are productive, given limited minutes. Virginia will not overwhelm
anyone with pure talent this year, but they could give a lot of teams problems if they
have solid depth. The frosh will be given
every chance to provide this support. If the
Hoos can field a team that's a legitimate nine-deep, then their chances at a successful
season will greatly increase.
Predicting what Virginia will do is very
difficult. Does Gillen finally have the right
mix of players? While there is talent on the
team, is there someone with superstar-level talent who can take over in big games? How
much of an impact will his freshman class make? Will
their presence give him enough depth to overwhelm more talented teams? Without a true center, how will the Hoos deal with
bigger teams? Is there a defensive stopper in
the house? Who will step up to take over
Watson's rebounding load? The season will
most likely hinge on defense. Unless Virginia
proves they can shut down their foes on a regular basis, 2004 will likely be another year
where the Hoos hover around .500, trying to get their foes into shootouts. Despite his long-term contract, I'm not sure how
long Pete Gillen can survive too many more of those kinds of seasons. With most of the teams in the ACC looking stronger
in 2004, Virginia could have a long and bumpy road ahead of them.
Projected Starting Lineup: C Elton Brown, W
Derrick Byars, G Todd Billet, G Devin Smith, G Majestic Mapp
Strength of Schedule: .04
Marquee Matchups: None
Mid-Majors: Minnesota, Iowa State, Providence
Low-Majors: Virginia Tech
Tune-Ups: Mount St Mary's, High Point, @ VMI,
James Madison, @ Loyola Marymount, Coastal Carolina, William & Mary
Comments: This is schedule so weak that even John Thompson
would decry it. Just two true road games,
both against weaklings? Seven games against
teams with RPI's over 200? No games against
RPI top 40 teams? The only moderately challenging games are against (mandatory) Big 10 foe
Minnesota, minus star Rick Rickert but with frosh Kris Humphries and UNC transfer Adam
Boone; a mediocre Iowa State squad minus Coach Gone Wild Larry Eustachy; and a Providence
squad that looks like it's on its way up. Other than the usual annual matchup against
Virginia Tech (who were awful last year but look to improve under Seth Greenberg),
Virginia will have no excuses if they lose any of their other conference games.
Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
#8 - Georgia
Tech
#9 - Clemson
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