 2003 Record: 14-15,
4-12 ACC
2003 Round-Up:
2003 was an "almost" year for FSU. They almost had a winning record. They knocked off
one ranked team and were within a handful of points of beating three others. But the 'noles had too many new players, not
enough scoring, and an inadequate post game. It
was a year of adjustment for new coach Leonard Hamilton.
It was clear that FSU was much more competitive, and they certainly played
fierce defense. They were tops in the ACC in
scoring defense, 2nd in FG% defense, 2nd in steals and 4th in 3FG% defense. Sure, they played a somewhat slower style to
shorten games a bit, but the program had pretty good athletes everywhere except post. If the team can also find a consistent third
scorer and get help from its rookies, they will be ready to challenge for the ACC's first
division this year.
FSU looked solid
early in the year. They mangled Iowa in the
Big Ten/ACC Challenge, soundly defeated Miami, and came within a single point of top ten
Florida. The 'noles lost on a last-second
tip-in by Matt Bonner, but held them to just 34% shooting overall. The team's offensive liabilities were exposed in a
21 point loss to UNC and then FSU was humiliated by Boston U on a neutral court. Three more cupcake wins put them at 9-3, but
that's when things got ugly. The 'noles would
not win consecutive games again all season, and had a couple of three game losing streaks.
 The pattern was
this: if the 'noles could hold a team to 70 or less, then they had a real chance of
winning. All five of their remaining wins
followed that pattern, while they had close losses of 1, 4, 7 and 8 points when locking
down their opponents. When their ACC opponent
scored over 70, the 'noles always lost and usually lost big, with 7 of those defeats in
double-digit margins. The most points FSU
scored in an ACC game was 75; not coincidentally, this came in their huge win against
Duke. FSU shot an absurd 60% in this game,
expertly picking apart the Duke defense with the right shot, again and again. If only they could have bottled the magic from
that night, the Seminoles would have gone to the NCAA tournament.
Other
near-highlights included a 1 point loss at UNC, where a late turnover doomed FSU; a 2
point loss to Maryland where FSU was tied late in the game; a 4 point defeat to Wake
Forest where both teams shot horribly; and an ACC tournament loss to Wake where FSU
actually led at the half. Pickett was a constant throughout the season, leading his team
in several categories, but he just didn't get enough help.
Florida State simply lacked a lot of players who knew how to win. Combine that with youth and a new coach, and it's
easy to see why they dropped so many close games. The question is, did this group learn
from their travails, or will they repeat the same mistakes they committed last year? How will the highly-touted freshman class fit in
with what is a deep team with experience?
Team MVP: Tim Pickett
Best Win: Iowa, Duke
Worst Loss: Boston
University
2004 Scouting Report:
Who's Leaving: C
Trevor Harvey (8.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg), Marcell Haywood (1.1 ppg)
Who's Coming Back: G
Nate Johnson (4.8 ppg, 84 assists), G Todd Galloway (6.9 ppg, 97 assists), G Tim Pickett
(17.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg), G Benson Callier (1.7 ppg), G Orenn Fells (0 ppg), W Andrew Wilson
(7.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg), F Michael Joiner (8.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg), F Anthony Richardson (12.4 ppg,
5.3 rpg), F Adam Waleskowski (4.1 ppg, 3 rpg), C Mike Mathews (2.7 ppg, 1.2 rpg)
Who's New: F Al
Thornton, W Von Wafer (#12), F Antonio Griffin (top 100 JuCo), PF Diego Romero (top 25
JuCo), PF Alexander Johnson (#28)
The only significant loss for FSU is center Trevor
Harvey, a dependable but limited power player. Shooting
59% from the field meant that FSU at least had some kind of inside scoring presence,
though the 'noles were still far from balanced overall.
 That's the bad news. The good news is that everyone else is back for a
team with four seniors who will play a lot of minutes.
Potentially, FSU should be a nice blend of youth and experience. While youngsters like Wafer will likely play a
lot, the team will still rely on its veterans. Leading the way is Tim Pickett, a fine
all-around player. He led the team in
scoring, rebounding (at just 6-4!), steals (also leading the ACC) and free throw
percentage (87%). More of a scorer than a
shooter, he still hit a decent 32% from three. Still,
if he leads the team in rebounding again, it could be a long year for the 'noles. Another JuCo player who joined the program last
year was Nate Johnson, a decent point guard who had some big games. He shot well from three (36%) and had a nearly 2:1
assist/turnover ratio. At 6-3, Johnson was
more of a combo guard; he shared time with surprise frosh contributor Todd Galloway. The small (5-11) speedster had a fine first year,
shooting an impressive 40% from three and leading the team in assists (97). His lack of size and strength hurt him in some
matchups, though his speed made up for it in others.
FSU is just stacked
at the guard spot. Benson Callier's season
numbers may be modest, but he came out of nowhere late in the year to provide some
offensive fireworks. If he can work on his
handle a bit, he could be very effective going to the hoop. Back after a season-ending injury is Andrew
Wilson, a wing who can board a bit and drive. Both
may have some trouble getting significant playing time because of the backlog and the
addition of some of the frosh talent.
At wing is the
experienced duo of Michael Joiner and Anthony Richardson. This is the high-flying
contingent of the Seminole squad, with Richardson in particular known for his dunks. He's also one of the better rebounders on a team
that didn't rebound very well (-2.3 on the season).
Richardson also was second on the team in blocks thanks to his ups, but must
improve his shooting (only 30% from three on 37 attempts).
Joiner isn't as flashy but he does get the job done, hitting 39% from three and
playing fine defense. The reality of the
situation is that one or the other should be starting, but not both. But because of FSU's difficulties in finding power
players, they've had to be out there by necessity. Joining
the team this year will be the aforementioned Wafer, a high school All-American, and Al
Thornton, a player who didn't qualify a year ago. Wafer
will likely back up Pickett and Thornton will play behind the Joiner/Richardson duo, but
both will certainly play. Wafer can really
shoot it and also loves to go to the hoop. For
a team starving for points, he will provide an immediate boost. He could even challenge for a starting job if he
proves he can play defense at this level. Thornton
can also really shoot it and has the advantage of having been enrolled at FSU since last
January. Yet another wing who could help is
JuCo slasher Griffin. On a team with so much
depth, he offers tremendous leaping ability and could also contribute on defense. FSU suddenly has a lot of options to go to for
offense when things bog down, and the older players can't afford to get complacent or they
may wind up losing their starting jobs or position in the rotation. Of the veterans, Joiner is the player most likely
to lose his starting job. It could be Wafer
or even Alex Johnson who gets the nod, if Hamilton decides to go big.
So far I've
mentioned ten players who are all really backcourt or wing players. What about the big men? Well, FSU does have a couple of experienced,
serviceable posts coming back. Adam
Waleskowski is an undersized (6-8) post who doesn't put up big numbers, but gets some
sneaky baskets and nice passes (28 assists). He's
not a guy you would want to start but he could do some good things given about ten minutes
a game. Also on the roster is Mike Matthews, though he might be playing without a
scholarship this year due to roster limitations (FSU has 13 scholarships for 14 players). Matthews is a big, reasonably athletic post who
just doesn't have what it takes to be a consistent contributor in the ACC. That is not to
say that he didn't help out from time to time, with 22 blocks and 50% shooting (taking
just 60 shots) in 2003. With the stronger and
more aggressive Harvey around, Matthews just wasn't going to play as much. I have a feeling his playing time will decrease
even more with the arrival of a couple of post players that could really upgrade the
position at FSU. JuCo big man Diego Romero
has a great shot at starting right away, given the availability of the spot and the lack
of compelling candidates to fill it. Romero
plays for the powerful Argentine junior national team and can shoot, pass and handle the
ball. With his size (6-10, 240), experience
and skills, he should be able to not just get playing time but make significant
contributions. Another possibility is frosh
Alexander Johnson, a touted big man with nice size. Johnson
is physical and athletic and will have the advantage of having played an extra year of
high school. (He originally committed to
Georgia but he failed to qualify, and recruiting irregularities at UGA made every team in
the SEC back off.) Johnson can also shoot and
drive, and will also have a chance to start right away.
Even if he doesn't, he will likely get big minutes.
Right now, FSU is
good enough to win 15 or 16 games in 2004 and get an NIT berth. However, they are capable of much, much more. The reason why FSU was able to win as many games
as they did last year with such awful numbers is because this team came to play defense. Increased team speed helped, but Leonard Hamilton
got this group to play hard on defense in every game.
That ability to defend kept them in a lot of close games. FSU also has some
legitimate scorers in Pickett, Richardson and Joiner. The problem is that all three are
perimeter scorers. FSU needs at least one
post scoring threat who can take some of the pressure off the team's guards and get some
easy baskets inside. If neither Johnson nor
Romero are ready to help, FSU will be a lower-division ACC team because they will have to
work too hard to get points. If one of them
does provide that presence (and even something like 10-12 ppg would do the trick) and the
other is a credible backup, then FSU's excellent depth will enable them to wear down a
number of teams. Guys like Matthews,
Waleskowski, Wilson and Callier wouldn't scare most teams in the ACC as starters, but they
could do some damage with limited minutes off the bench.
Another key will be
the integration of the freshman class. While
last year's class was certainly impressive, that team had many more spots that were up for
grabs. This year's class potentially has much
more talent, but fewer open positions. How
will the veterans react to the threat of reduced playing time, and how will they welcome
these potential threats? How will the youngsters react to not getting an automatic start,
and will they respect their elders? Furthermore,
while it's all well and good to talk about potential, the reality is that this team has
not won anything in a long time. Even with
all the talent in the world, FSU will still have to learn how to win, how to close out
games, and how to beat teams even when they aren't playing all that well.
Lastly, while the
team's guard play in 2003 was solid, there was certainly room for improvement. Galloway and Johnson both need to up their assist
totals, while Pickett & Richardson need to improve their three point shooting. Everyone on the team needs to pick up their
rebounding. FSU gave up nearly 13 offensive
rebounds a game last year, meaning that their tremendous defensive effort frequently went
unrewarded because their opponents got plenty of extra chances. There's a lot of work to be done for Florida
State, but for the first time in a while, it's going to come down to hard work and
chemistry rather than having to deal with a lack of talent and depth. With the strong mix of ability, depth and
experience, this is the year that FSU must make a statement. With four key contributors leaving after this
year, this team must set a tone for future seasons.
Projected Starting
Lineup: G N.Johnson, G Pickett, F Joiner, F
Richardson, C Romero
Strength of Schedule: .43
Marquee Matchups: @
Florida, @ Pitt*
Mid-Majors: Wagner*
Low-Majors: South
Carolina State, Northwestern, Mississippi, @ Miami, Eastern Michigan*
Tune-Ups: Maine,
Nicholls State, Fairleigh Dickinson, @ Stetson, Savannah State, Chicago State*
* Pittsburgh
Invitational
Comments:
This isn't a bad schedule, but not a great one, either. Especially if FSU is
really planning on getting back to the NCAA tournament.
With six teams ranked outside of the RPI top 200, including one of the worst
squads in the country in Savannah State, FSU won't have a ton of challenges. Even some of the "name" programs on
their schedule (Miami, Northwestern, Mississippi) weren't top 100 teams. They will be playing a solid South Carolina State
team and an excellent Wagner squad that made the NCAA's under coach Dereck Whittenburg but
will now be led by former Marquette coach Mike Deane.
The highlights of
the schedule include two very difficult road games: their annual grudge match with Florida
and a trip to play a fine Pitt squad. Both
are likely top 20 teams that will throw different looks at the 'noles. Florida is filled with skilled athletes and
shooters like Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson, while Pitt features bruising power players
like Chevy Troutman and tough guards like Julius Page.
Playing those two teams will give Hamilton a true indicator of how far his
team has come, while most of the rest should pad his team's win total.
Reported by Rob Clough, tmc@duke.edu
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson
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