 2002-2003
Schedule: 19-16, 6-10 ACC, NIT 3rd round)
2003
Round-Up:
The ACC's favorite soap opera had more twists and turns than a Rubik's cube last year,
coming to a shocking conclusion with the firing of Matt Doherty and the subsequent hiring
of Roy Williams away from Kansas. In the simplest terms, UNC was a talented but
shallow team that went into the tank when their only capable big man got hurt. That
really only tells part of the story, because a wounded UNC team still managed to beat top
ten schools like UConn, Duke and Maryland without May, and was trounced by Illinois and
Kentucky with him. The real story of the 2003 season was that of a coach who had
lost complete control of his team. You knew that when there was a near-player revolt
in the summer before the season and players were publicly saying that they'd have more of
a voice that things wouldn't end well for Doherty. Whether this was a case of a
coach too tightly wound to deal with teaching youngsters or a group of spoiled athletes is
something we'll learn rather quickly. I suspect the answer lies somewhere between
those extremes, but that the veteran presence of Roy Williams will get this group under
firm control in short order.
Before
we look ahead, let's take a look back at the season that was. UNC had to be the craziest,
most unpredictable team I've ever seen. Their talent was clear and that alone won
them a few games, but problems with depth and motivation made every game an
adventure. The Heels won quite a few games that they had no business winning and
lost several that should have been gimmees.
November turned out to be UNC's best month, as they whipped Penn State and barely survived
Rutgers on their way to the Preseason NIT's final four. Sean May and Rashad McCants
were the difference makers in the Rutgers game, giving the Heels a toughness and a scoring
punch that was absent in 2002. The Heels shocked everyone by whipping Kansas and
Stanford to win the title, as McCants was superb in both games and frosh point guard
Raymond Felton did a fine job in scoring and directing the team. The Heels weren't
all that deep and were still desperately young, but they were getting the job done.
Then reality arrived in the form of a blowout loss on the road to Illinois, who used
superior speed and deadly shooting to win easily. Kentucky came to Chapel Hill and used
their depth to dominate the Heels. The frosh Big Three of May, Felton and McCants all
played well, but they simply weren't getting enough help from the sophs. After a
couple of easy wins against Vermont and Florida State, disaster struck. Against a
very ordinary Iona team, the Heels were handled easily thanks to Jawad Williams being
suspended for a game, Melvin Scott being out sick, and (worst of all) Sean May breaking
his foot in the game. With McCants and Felton shooting a combined 8-24 from the
floor, you knew it was going to be a long night. The Heels bounced back against a St
John's club that would later win the postseason NIT, but were already starting to get
pounded on the boards.
Winning
is a habit inculcated for four years for players in top-notch programs. This UNC
team simply didn't have a lot of players who knew how to win on a regular basis, so you
wound up with inexplicable losses to Miami at the last second, wherein the Heels spent the
last 17 minutes of regulation & overtime without a field goal. If anything
summed up the weirdness of the season, it was two games in January. The first saw
the Heels narrowly beat Clemson, a team that has never won in Chapel Hill. This wasn't
even a half-decent Clemson squad, and they very nearly pulled off the upset. Four
days later, an inspired McCants scored 27 points to hold off #6 UConn in Chapel Hill, as
the Heels blew a 19 point lead, only to win by a narrow margin.
UNC's
ACC foes were not impressed. Having already lost on the road to Virginia, the 11-5
Heels lost their next five games to fall out of ACC contention. The games with
Maryland, NC State and Georgia Tech weren't even close. McCants, Felton and Williams
were doing all they could, but the Heels couldn't defend anyone and were frequently being
crushed on the boards. Things were closer in games against Wake Forest and Duke, but
the Heels ultimately lost because they couldn't stop wings Josh Howard and Dahntay Jones,
respectively. UNC barely pulled out a road win against an inspired FSU club and then
whipped a flaky and careless Virginia team to right their ship somewhat. Now
fighting for an NIT bid, UNC was still having trouble beating teams with less
talent. Clemson beat them on the road, with Ed Scott abusing every UNC
defender. Maryland crushed them in College Park, while State came into the Dean Dome
and won in overtime. Only a dramatic win over Duke to end the regular season gave the
Heels some momentum. That game featured brilliant performances by McCants and Felton
and a solid showing by their supporting players.
The
Heels were matched up with Maryland in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and absolutely tore them to shreds. With
a small-ball frontcourt of Williams, McCants and athletic David Noel, Carolina dominated
the boards and made the bigger Terps look slow. After being humiliated twice by
Maryland, this game was sweet revenge. Then came another matchup with Duke.
After playing them tough in Durham and beating them in Chapel Hill, thoughts of actually
winning the tournament and gaining entrance to the NCAA's suddenly become realistic
goals. However, Sean May's sudden return hurt the team's chemistry rather than give
it a lift, and the prepared Devils rode a 21 point halftime lead to an easy win.
Still, UNC had proved itself and was looking forward to the NIT.
Playing
at home, the Heels beat DePaul and Wyoming with relative ease. Then came a very physical
Georgetown club with powerful center Michael Sweetney. The Hoyas won a close game
thanks to Sweetney's inside dominance and guard Gerald Riley's shooting. Little did
anyone suspect that this was also the end of Matt Doherty's coaching career. Doherty
was fired rather unceremoniously in the middle of the NCAA tournament as rumors
surrounding Roy Williams heated up, leading to his infamous "I don't give a shit
about North Carolina" comment after he lost in the Final Four, the quote that spawned
a thousand t-shirts. Of course, he couldn't resist Dean Smith's call to come home
twice and his mere presence has restored order in Blue Heaven. How much his presence
alone will fix this team's deficiencies remains to be seen, but Williams is one of the
best teachers in the game. On so many occasions, the most basic of zone defenses
would completely flummox the Heels, as though they had never been briefed on what to do
when they saw one. Whatever flaws the Heels have in 2004, they will likely no longer
be mental ones.
Team MVP: Tie, Rashad McCants and Raymond Felton
Best
Wins: Kansas, UConn, Duke, Maryland
Worst
Losses: Iona, Miami, Clemson
2004 Scouting Report:
Who's
Leaving: G Jonathan Holmes (0.5 ppg), F Will Johnson (1.7 ppg)
Who's
Coming Back: G Raymond Felton (12.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 236 assists), G Melvin Scott (6.3 ppg,
1.9 rpg, 38% threes), G Jonathan Miller (1 mpg), G Damien Price (1.2 mpg), W Jackie Manuel
(7.3 ppg, 4 rpg), W David Noel (5.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg), W Rashad McCants (17 ppg, 4.6 rpg), F
Phillip McLamb (1.2 mpg), F Jawad Williams (14.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 37 blocks), F Byron Sanders
(1.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg), C Sean May (11.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg), C Damion Grant (1.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg)
Who's
New: F Reyshawn Terry (#43), F Justin Bohlander (Top 400)
The Heels didn't lose a whole lot. Former Bill Guthridge recruits Jon Holmes
(who actually got a scholarship) and Will Johnson pretty much rotted away on the
bench. Doherty lived and died with his younger players. A lack of upperclass
leadership was a major problem for UNC last year, as the youngsters had to essentially
learn on the job. With the small team roster, lack of leadership, superior
individual talent but poor team play, the 2003 Heels bore a greater resemblance to a
really talented group of pick-up players than a well-coached college basketball program.
Despite having three players who averaged in double figures, the Heels were 7th in
scoring, 8th in FG%, and 7th in FT%. Things could have been much worse if Felton
wasn't around, and his 236 assists were nearly half of the team's total output.
Things were much worse on defense, as the Heels were 8th in the ACC in scoring defense,
FG% defense and 3FG% defense. With no inside presence to get high-percentage baskets
and prevent the same, everything was a struggle for Carolina. It should be no
surprise that they were last in the ACC in rebounding, with an awful -4.4 per game margin.
Given
these awful numbers, why am I picking UNC at #2? Simple answer: coaching, talent and
experience. While the team will still lack any significant senior presence, the
Heels will at least have three juniors and several sophomores, and will only have to work
in one freshman into their rotation. UNC has the talent to put several players on
the All-ACC team, but the other area of concern for this team is production from its
reserves. Jackie Manuel, Melvin Scott, David Noel and Byron Sanders combined for
only 21.8 ppg and 11.5 rpg last season, and that simply wasn't enough to help out the big
three of McCants, Williams and Felton. Of course, this doesn't take into account Sean May,
and therein lies the heart of the matter.
At 6-8
and around 270 pounds, May is undersized at center but is certainly powerful enough to
play there. However, he's not a power player like Wake's Eric Williams.
Instead, he prefers using his sophisticated moves in the paint, his surprising agility and
his huge hands to score inside. Dropping another 10 to 15 pounds would probably make
him an ideal target inside, as would getting stronger. The real concern is his
health. He's had nagging foot injuries during his career and his weight certainly hasn't
helped any. If he can avoid injuries this season and work on his body, he could be a
tremendous offensive force for the Heels. He's already proven that he can rebound at
his size, but improving his quickness could make him a consistent double-digit
rebounder. Of all the players on UNC's roster, May has the most untapped
potential. Of course, the other reason why he's so important is that the Heels don't
have much else at the position, finally moving to a small-ball lineup at the end of last
season because nothing else was working.
The
post player who got the most playing time after May went down was Byron Sanders, an
athletic forward who wasn't ready for major minutes. He's quick and can block shots, but
he's raw and a bit shy about contact. The more physical frosh was Damion Grant, a powerful
6-11 player who has had trouble with his knees during his brief career. Neither
demonstrated much of an offensive knack last year, but if they can rebound and play
defense, they will get some minutes. Knowing that Roy Williams prefers having
several big men at his disposal, I'm sure that he'll try his best to develop these young
big men as quickly as possible.
The
Heels have some talented forwards on the squad, led by the underrated Jawad
Williams. This long, quick leaper really established himself as a force last season
after an up-and-down freshman year. He probably shot too many threes (33% on 136
attempts), but he did a nice job as UNC's nominal post presence when May went down.
Despite not being a physical player at all, he rebounded well (leading the regulars),
blocked shots and even passed the ball well. He was one of the few Heels who was
proficient at the foul line, shooting 75%. Despite being best suited for the wing,
Williams has made the most of his career and will look to become a more efficient player
in 2004. Former football player David Noel was inconsistent as a frosh, but never
failed to demonstrate his toughness and leaping ability. One could sense that his
feel for the game was still under development, but that he was slowly figuring things
out. He has the potential to be the team's defensive stopper thanks to his size and
quickness, and his dunks are a joy to behold. He needs to improve his shooting (28%
from three) and overall skill level, but he has a bright future.
 A player whose future is a bit
cloudier is Jackie Manuel. Touted as a defensive stopper, he did not excel in this
role though was adequate. He turns the ball over way too much (87 times), can't
shoot (26% of his 72 attempts from three) and isn't a great rebounder, either. He
was by far the weakest link amongst the regular starters, and may face competition from
UNC's only significant frosh recruit, Reyshawn Terry. Like Manuel, Terry is
extremely quick and athletic. He was one of the better players in the state of North
Carolina last year, proving himself as a scorer and passer. It's anticipated that it
will take him a while to adjust to the college game, but this is a player who can
definitely help. If he can add 5-8 ppg, that would be a tremendous boost for a
Carolina bench that lacked firepower last year.
UNC's
true strength lies in its backcourt duo of Felton & McCants. Ray Felton was one
of the better point guards in America last year as a frosh, and should only improve this
year as he gets a better feel for his team. He's a tireless competitor, extremely quick
and always looks to make his teammates better. He was second in the ACC in assists,
behind only senior Steve Blake of Maryland. This is not to say that there wasn't
room for improvement. He started the season off rather slowly at the offensive end,
and wound up shooting under 40% for the year and a decent 36% from three. Also, his
assist to turnover ratio was 1.8:1, which was very good but not what he's capable
of. Felton is pretty much a lock for All-ACC and is on the short list for ACC player
of the year.
McCants
also had a tremendous season, though it was far less consistent than Felton's. He proved he could be a big scorer, but
struggled with injuries and emotional outbursts against his coach. He's a
heart-on-his-sleeve kind of player and simply didn't have the kind of leadership on the
team needed to put him in his place and get him back on the right track. But when he
was on, he was one of the finest players in the country. Built for the college game,
since he's really an undersized (6-4, 200) forward who can shoot rather than a pure
guard. He loved taking on bigger opponents and hitting the offensive boards (58,
best on the team). McCants proved that he was quite proficient from the perimeter,
shooting 41% from three on 174 attempts, good for third best in the ACC. Another
All-ACC lock, he simply needs to cut down on his turnovers and learn to play all-out in
every game.
The
other significant player on the Heels is combo guard Melvin Scott. He's one of the most
important players on the team, because he's the only good player who can back up both
Felton and McCants. He's a good shooter at 38% from three and can also handle the
ball adequately, but he's not a real point guard. Scott's a nice blend player who
probably needs to up his scoring average a bit.
The
Heels have a real chance to do some great things this year. Their youth and lack of
depth will hurt them, especially since there are so many deep teams in the ACC. The
lack of size will also be a factor, even if May is completely healthy. The Heels
will need to put a lot of pressure on the ball and force turnovers for easy shots.
If May is healthy and productive, and they can coax a few more points out of the
Manuel/Scott/Noel/Sanders/Terry group, it'll be a lot easier to hide their other
deficiencies because they will be able to score so many points. Their problems aside,
talent always wins out in basketball, and the presence of Williams, McCants and Felton
will always give them a chance to win any game. There will probably be a lot less
drama surrounding the Carolina basketball game this year as everyone learns how to win
again under Roy Williams.
Projected Starting Lineup: G Felton, G Scott, F McCants, F Williams, C May
Strength of Schedule: 0.95
Marquee
Matchups: Illinois, @ Kentucky, UConn
Mid-Majors: UNC-Wilmington
Low-Majors: Old Dominion, @ Davidson, George Mason, Akron, Miami
Tune-Ups: @ Cleveland State, Coastal Carolina
Comments: An excellent schedule for the Heels, with a
nice mix of strength at the top and in the middle. UConn will likely be the #1 team
in the country, though the Heels managed to handle them last year in a thriller. Ben
Gordon will be their top scorer, while Emeka Okafor will anchor the post. Kentucky
may have lost some important seniors, but they have a deep roster that's had no trouble
beating UNC in recent years. Illinois will be a loaded top-15 club led by talented guards
Dee Brown and Deron Williams. This is a brutal 1-2-3 combination for the Heels,
though they certainly have the talent to beat any of these teams.
Playing
UNC-Wilmington is a very nice move for the program, both because it's good to see the
Heels play some in-state rivals and because the Seahawks have a fine program. After
beating USC two years ago, they should have knocked off Maryland last year. Their
low-major foes are solid, with either good programs that had down years (Akron, George
Mason, Old Dominion), lower-rated teams from power conferences (Miami, with star guard
Darius Rice) or tough local programs (Davidson). Miami beat UNC last year and
Davidson took them out two years ago, so the Heels will be looking for some payback.
Even one of the Heels' two cupcake games (Cleveland State) will be on the road--that one's
a Jawad Williams special, since he's an Ohio native. All in all, it can never be
said that UNC takes the wimpy way out when it comes to scheduling, though one more solid
top 100 program on the schedule would have topped things off perfectly.
Rob Clough's Other ACC Previews:
#3 - Wake
Forest
#4 - NC State
#5 - Maryland
#6 - Florida State
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson
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