 2002-2003 Season: 26-7, 11-5, NCAA
Sweet Sixteen
2003 Round-Up:
Coach Mike Krzyzewski had built his 2003 team expecting star forward Mike Dunleavy
to anchor it. Instead, Dunleavy went pro early along with Jason Williams and Carlos
Boozer, leaving a talented but extremely young group of players and less continuity than
he would have liked. Of his seniors, Dahntay Jones had only played for Duke for a
year and Casey Sanders had been a role player throughout his career. This meant that
he would have to lean on junior guard Chris Duhon extensively, a task that Duhon was not
entirely up to.
 What resulted was a typically good
Duke season where they were even #1 for a short time, but not a year that matched anything
from 1998-2002. There were times when the team was actually perilously close to getting in
serious trouble, but help came from an unexpected source: Jones. After an
up-and-down first year in the program (not counting his transfer year), Jones emerged as
the team's best player, toughest defender and leader. While Duke had a lot of flaws
(especially on defense), they could shoot, pressure the ball and put a lot of points on
the board. That was good enough to win the ACC Tournament for a fifth straight year
after coming in as the #3 seed (tying with Maryland for a second place finish in the
regular season).
Duke's
non-conference schedule was not as daunting as it had been in recent years. A
tournament Duke was planning to attend got wiped out by new NCAA rules regarding exempt
in-season tournaments. Coach K did get in extra practice time thanks to a loophole
in the rules regarding international basketball tours. Allowed once every four
years, K had the idea of taking it during Fall Break at Duke, which gave his team extra
practice time and games against live competition. How much this wound up helping
Duke is debatable, because it ultimately served to lengthen the season. Fatigue
became a factor for a team that usually played a short bench.
Duke's
first major game was against then-#14 UCLA, a team that would soon fall on hard
times. The Devils had five players in double figures, led by frosh sharpshooter JJ
Redick. Ohio State gave Duke some nervous moments, but a 20-point second half from
Redick and a fine floor game from Duhon sealed the win, as Duke gave eight different
players at least 14 minutes of playing time. The Devils then crunched a Michigan
team that had started out 0-6 but wound up having a solid year. Tough defense won
the day here, with Dan Ewing and Jones leading the way. The Devils later played a
very solid Dayton team in Cameron and nearly blew a 23 point lead, but held on down the
stretch as Redick went wild. After whipping a decent Fairfield club and whipping
Clemson on the road, the Devils had a wild home game against Georgetown. This was a
brutal, physical game, one that saw frosh Shelden Williams emerge with a
double-double. He was matched by Jones with a double-double as well.
The
Devils were undefeated but hadn't played any great teams yet. Wake Forest would be a
test in Cameron, one Duke wound up acing thanks to Jones, Duhon and Shavlik
Randolph. This was one of Duke's best defensive performances of the year, holding a
great Wake team to just 55 points. Duke had trouble stringing together consistent
defensive performances, because their next game saw them survive a shootout with Virginia,
104-93. Redick had 34, Randolph 17 and Jones 23 as both teams shot 50%.
Duke
had been ranked #1 for a few weeks but Coach K discounted this, referring to it as "a
popularity contest". He knew a real #1 team when
he saw it, and this young bunch wasn't it. Still, starting the year with a 12-0
record and not having any foe come closer than 11 points was impressive. All of that
faded quickly when Duke went to the Comcast Center for the first time and was beaten
senseless by an inspired Maryland club. Duke's frosh were not ready for that kind of
road environment. Of greater concern was a loss to NC State on the road, where Duke
let the Pack shoot 50%. Considering that NC State generally had a lot of trouble
scoring, this was pointing to some real problems. The Devils righted themselves at
home against Georgia Tech, shutting down future lottery pick Chris Bosh in the
bargain. A terrific 20 point win against future NCAA darling Butler seemed to
indicate that Duke was back on track.
Then
Duke went to what's becoming a house of horrors and lost to a bad FSU team in
Tallahassee. FSU played great, shooting 60%, while Duhon & Jones combined to go
3-17 while Redick was just 5-18. Duke took 37 threes against a team without much of
an inside presence that dared them to keep up with them. The Devils stood at 4-3 in
the league and really needed a win against UNC. They got it, as Duke overcame a
halftime deficit and was led by Jones, who had a double-double. Duhon, benched after
the FSU debacle, responded with a 12-point, 10-assist game. After an uninspired win
against Clemson, Duke went to Winston-Salem for a showdown with Wake Forest. In the
ACC game of the year, Wake won a gut-wrenching double-OT win as five Devils and three
Deacs fouled out. Despite the loss, Duke really pressured the ball well and played
with toughness.
The ACC
stretch run was coming up and the pressure was on. The Devils responded with a big
win at Virginia, where they hadn't won since 2000. That game was punctuated by a vicious
in-your-face dunk by Dahntay Jones on Virginia center Nick Vander Laan. This was
also the game where Williams really emerged as a consistent force at both ends of the
court. The Devils then survived a rematch with Maryland as Jones, Williams and Redick led
the way. Duke continued to collect on its debts by beating NC State in their second
go-round, with Dan Ewing emerging as a star. The team was dragging and still capable
of awful stretches of play, as their collapse down the stretch against St John's showed,
as well as an emotional loss to archrival UNC. Duke had lost 2 of 3 going into the
ACC Tournament and wasn't expected to go very far after winning four of them in a row.
Ewing
thought different, as he dropped 32 points on Virginia in the first round. Virginia
shot 57% and still lost by 7 points. In the rubber match with UNC, Duke shot 54% and
cruised to an easy win against the Heels. Then came NC State, a surprise winner over
Wake Forest in the semis. After a close game, State pulled ahead by 15 with ten
minutes to go. Then Redick went absolutely bananas, scoring 23 of his 30 points
during that time as Duke came back to win by 7. Ewing, after scoring 19 against UNC,
was the tournament MVP. It was an enormously satisfying win, considering how poorly
Duke had played at times.
Duke
didn't get the seeding they wanted in the NCAA Tournament, but won a tough game against
Colorado State and then crushed a very good Central Michigan squad to make the Sweet
Sixteen for the sixth straight year. Duke was then matched up against Kansas and lost in a
grueling test of wills. Redick had a terrible day from the field but Duke stayed
close the whole time, ultimately being unable to stop Kansas star forward Nick Collison
from taking over.
Overall, the year had been a tremendous success. No, it wasn't a Final Four or a
30-win season, but it was a fine year considering Duke's youth, defensive problems, post
problems, and other issues. Everyone but Jones would be back and the younger players
would be in a better position to contribute on a regular basis. In some ways, it
resembled the 2000 season, when a senior (Chris Carrawell) had to take charge of a
talented group of freshmen (Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy) after a great
class had left early (Brand, Avery, Maggette, etc.), resulting in an ACC title. That
team flamed out in the NCAA's in the Sweet Sixteen, only to position themselves for a
national title run, fueled in part by a talented freshman (Chris Duhon). Will
history repeat itself?
Team
MVP: Tie, Dahntay Jones & JJ Redick
Best
Wins: Wake Forest, Maryland, Butler
Worst
Losses: FSU, St John's
2004 Scouting
Report:
Who's
Leaving: F Dahntay Jones (17.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 40% 3FG), Casey Sanders (4.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 54
blocks), Andre Buckner (1.9 mpg)
Who's
Coming Back: G Chris Duhon (9.2 ppg, 32 rpg, 212 assists), G Sean Dockery (3.3 ppg, 1.2
rpg), G Andy Means (2.3 mpg), G JJ Redick (15 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 40% 3FG), G Daniel Ewing (12
ppg, 3.2 rpg, 40% 3FG), F Lee Melchionni (1 ppg), F Nick Horvath (3.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg), F
Shavlik Randolph (8.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Patrick Johnson (1.8 mpg) F Shelden Williams (8.2
ppg, 5.9 rpg, 52 blocks), C Michael Thompson (1.2 ppg)
Who's
New: F Luol Deng (#2), G Patrick Davidson (Top 500)
Duke enters the 2003-04 season with a great deal of optimism thanks to the
advancement of its freshman class, but there are still some questions to be
answered. Despite its returning talent, there will still be the matter of replacing
Dahntay Jones. His importance to Duke last year ran deeper than his stats. His
toughness, flamboyance and intensity made him an easy target for opposing fans and players
alike. His chippy, physical play and occasional on-court antics provoked many a
confrontation. As a result, he became a perfect villain for his team, one that left
his teammates facing a lot less scrutiny while he took the brunt of the abuse. While Duke
had a lot of different players step up at crucial times last year, Jones was one of the
constants. If he played well, Duke could beat anyone. If his jumper wasn't
falling, Duke would struggle. To his credit, he shored up his long-range shooting
and foul-shooting rather impressively (39% and 75%, respectively). He rebounded well
and played his usual tough brand of defense, being named to the ACC's all-defense
team. His improved game kept Duke from having a disastrous season and landed him a
guaranteed NBA contract. Duke's other senior, Casey Sanders, never fulfilled his
potential. While a solid on-ball defender and decent rebounder, he simply never
looked comfortable on offense, both in terms of positioning and catching the ball.
He had a nice senior year and certainly helped the team at times, but shouldn't be that
difficult to replace.
 The frontcourt, as usual, will be
undersized, since Coach K prefers mobility over size. Since most of Duke's big men
are required to pass and face up anyway, this is usually not a problem. The nominal
center will be Shelden Williams, a strong but mobile big man who is a decent leaper.
Wildly inconsistent in his first couple of months, he eventually settled down and became a
reliable scorer and rebounder. He averaged close to a double-double in the last
third of the season and was starting to block a fair amount of shots as well. His
biggest problem, like most young players at Duke, was learning how to play help
defense. Since Duke puts so much pressure on the wings, that often leaves the post
players exposed. If they don't make the right decision right away on defense, the team
becomes vulnerable, especially against teams with speedy penetrators. But if you
have players who can swiftly read a situation and move into the proper position, Duke is
very difficult to score against.
Next to
Williams will be perhaps the most important x-factor on the team: Shavlik Randolph.
The much-heralded forward had an absurdly inconsistent freshman year, looking like a
world-beater some nights and not even getting off the bench in others. While his
overall numbers weren't bad (shooting 50% from the floor and 37% from three), he was
overmatched against teams with bigger & stronger players. The fact that his
mobility was limited by a nagging injury didn't help matters any, especially on
defense. He reportedly is finally healthy and has managed to add some weight, which
means that he'll be able to get some significant playing time. Randolph is an
extremely skilled player who can shoot, dribble and block shots, with enormous offensive
potential. The key to his success will be how quickly he absorbs his defensive
responsibilities. Coach K will want him out on the wing at times, but he's probably not
quick enough to deal with elite small forwards on defense. That's why his getting
bigger was so important to his development, because otherwise he wouldn't be able to
handle the power forwards he will guard this year.
Also in
the frontcourt is Michael Thompson, a huge and powerful center with underdeveloped
skills. He has the body and strength to become a great player, but needs to develop
greater flexibility. Thompson simply looks uncomfortable and stiff near the basket,
and doesn't have a lot of touch. He wasn't really expected to contribute right
away. Instead, he's working on his skills and his defense. With Casey Sanders
gone, there will be minutes available in the post if he's ready. A solid showing in
the NCAA Tournament may signal that he's ready to help. The team's oldest player is
Nick Horvath, who arrived with Jason Williams & company in the fall of 1999.
He's a good offensive rebounder (39) who scores either on garbage plays or with his
ugly-looking three point shot. The hoopgods must have been angered by his
game-winning three in a game against DePaul four years ago, because ever since then his
luck from three has been abysmal. Nick will compete with Thompson for playing time
inside, though with so many great perimeter players demanding attention, it'll be
difficult to get a lot of minutes there. Still, his experience will be important.
Wing
will be a crucial position for Duke. Replacing Jones will be highly-touted freshman
Luol Deng. Deng is the highest-ranked recruit to attend college this year, since a
certain L.James will be playing in Cleveland. While Deng's talent is considerable,
it may not stand out to the average viewer at first, because he prefers to let the game
come to him. A perfect blend player, he combines solid quickness, a mature body,
highly developed skills and an advanced understanding of the game. An excellent
scorer, Deng will likely make an even bigger impact on the defensive end. Duke's
system will take advantage of his smarts and wide variety of skills, and his own intensity
& work ethic will make him a perfect replacement for Jones. Backing him up will
be Lee Melchionni, who this year will be on scholarship. While he didn't play much
as a frosh, Coach K wasn't afraid to insert him into the lineup in some of the team's
tightest games. Deng will get the bulk of the minutes here, while players like Ewing
& Redick will slide over when Duke goes to a 3 guard lineup. Melchionni is a solid
all-around player who can shoot and pass, but needs to get a bit stronger. He lacks
the quickness to guard the nation's elite at guard, but is most likely ready for more
minutes this year.
As
always, the heart of Duke's team resides in its backcourt. The duo of Dan Ewing and
JJ Redick is a deadly one, with both players brining something
different to the table. Ewing started to develop into a very good on-ball defender
and was often assigned to the other team's quickest player. He's an excellent
shooter (40% threes, 82% FT) who can create his own shot at virtually any time.
Ewing does need to get stronger in order to have more success going to the basket and
needs to be more consistent overall, but he's turned into a potent threat at both ends of
the floor. Redick had a celebrated season thanks to his in-the-gym range from three, but
he went through a lot of struggles as a freshman. There were plenty of games where
he couldn't buy a basket and didn't have the ability to generate points except through his
jumper. He sometimes got lost on defense and had some difficulties with physical
play. However, he always played through his problems and relentlessly attacked the
basket. Despite a lack of hops, he still managed 111 free throw attempts and
converted at a ridiculous 92% rate. He shot 40% from three on the season and proved
that he was no gunner by dishing out 67 assists, second best on the team. Redick is
striving to be a complete player, which will come as he gets used to the offense and what
his teammates can do. Having two guards who are capable of 30+ point performances is
a big plus for Duke, and the two will only improve as they find ways to complement each
other's game.
At
point, Duke has its senior leader in Chris Duhon. Picked as preseason ACC Player of
the Year, Duhon instead had a disappointing season. Used to playing with a confident
set of upperclassmen, he struggled at times in guiding such a young group of
players. However, the fact that he wasn't an All-America last year didn't mean that
his season was awful. He did still score 9 ppg, was 3rd in the ACC (and 11th in the
country) in assists, easily led the team (and was fourth in the ACC) in steals, had over a
2:1 assist/turnover ratio and held the team together at times. The problem was that
his shooting numbers were way down: 39% overall and 27% from three. For a player
with his form, that percentage was baffling, even if he took too many of his attempts from
25' plus. Worse, he stopped using his quick first step to get to the basket, settling for
awkward jumpers instead. And while he took reasonable care of the ball, he was
nowhere near his freshman form of nearly 3:1. For an upperclassman, he was also
inconsistent, worrying too much about everyone else to the detriment of his own
game. He got much better towards the end of the year and was great in the NCAA
Tournament. For Duke to be a great team, Duhon must be solid (not necessarily a
star) in every game. That means improving his defense, running the team, forcing
tempo and diversifying his offense. Backing him up will be Sean Dockery, a
lightning-quick ballhawk who made his mark as a strong defensive player. While not a bad
shooter (37% on threes), he was known for his awkward, falling-down shots while driving in
the lane. He was out of control too often on offense and didn't really show that he
knew how to run a team. Duhon will get the lion's share of minutes at point, but Coach K
didn't mind using both in a game at once. Dockery will need to prove that he can
play under control and show that he can stick the jumper consistently. Even if he doesn't,
he will get minutes as a disruptor on defense.
Duke
was not a great defensive team last year, with most of their numbers in the middle.
They weren't a very good
rebounding squad, with only a +1.4 margin. On the other hand, they were not only a
great scoring team, they did things on defense that made things easier for the offense.
With 9 steals and 5 blocks a game, Duke got a number of easy chances in transition.
Duke's other main virtue as a team is that they can really shoot the ball. This
year's roster will have six players who can legitimately score 20 or more points in any
given game. The presence of Deng, the expected improvement of the frosh, decent
depth and overall team balance give Duke an edge over the rest of the league, though not
by much. If their defense does not improve, they could lose a lot of games where their
shooting lets them down. Williams, Randolph and Duhon all have a lot to prove at
both ends of the court. The league's talent is more spread out now than when Duke
dominated the ACC, meaning that there will be few, if any, off nights. Still, the
fact that Duke has a much more settled roster than last year could mean a very fine season
indeed.
Projected Starting Lineup: G Duhon, G Redick, F Deng, F Randolph, F Williams
Strength of Schedule: 1.04
Marquee
Matchups: @ Michigan State, Texas, Seton Hall/Purdue*
High-Majors: St John's, Fairfield, @ Georgetown, Valparaiso
Mid-Majors: Princeton, Detroit
Tune-Ups: Pacific*, Portland, Cansius/Liberty*
* Great
Alaska Shootout
Comments: Duke's high strength
of schedule is a bit deceptive, especially with regard to some of their high-major
foes. Starting at the top, both Michigan State and Texas will be excellent
tests. The Spartans have a tremendous front line anchored by Paul Davis, and the
fact that the game is on MSU's home court just makes it all the more challenging.
Texas' equally rugged frontcourt will provide another obstacle for Duke, even without
All-American TJ Ford. Seton Hall or Purdue will likely be Duke's opponents in the
Great Alaska Shootout. Andre Barrett leads a solid group at Seton Hall that is just
barely a top-40 RPI program, while Purdue is tough every year. A meeting with Seton
Hall would mean a reunion with former Duke player Andre Sweet, who transferred after the
2001 program. Sweet has carved out a nice career so far at the Hall, and will no doubt be
eager to prove himself. It would have been nice to have one more top 40 foe on here, but
scheduling restrictions passed by the NCAA made this difficult. Two of their
tune-ups will appear in the Great Alaska Shootout, a far cry from the sort of teams that
used to appear in that tournament.
Of the
high majors, both St John's and Valpo will be legitimate top 100 clubs. Valpo went
to the NIT last year and features the return of their greatest coach, Homer Drew, who is
taking over the program again since his son Scott took the Baylor job. St John's
loses scorer Marcus Hatten but will return an athletic squad. Georgetown lost
Michael Sweetney and Tony Bethel and will have to rely on guards like Gerald Riley.
Fairfield will have Luol Deng's cousin Deng Gai, a talented and quick big man, but is
dealing with an NCAA investigation.
Detroit
was a good club that lost its best scorer in Willie Green and may have trouble cracking
the top 200. Princeton is Princeton, a team with a deliberate style on offense and a
legitimate star in Spencer Gloger. While they don't have the athletes that Duke will
possess, they'll still be a challenge because of the way they play at both ends of the
floor.
All in
all, it's still a solid schedule with some tough challenges at the top and very few
out-and-out bad teams. The fact that MSU and Texas are both likely top 10 teams
gives it some extra kick.
Rob Clough's Other ACC Previews:
#2 - North
Carolina
#3 - Wake Forest
#4 - NC State
#5 - Maryland
#6 - Florida State
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson
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