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2003-2004 ACC Predictions


Rob's Picks:

 1. Duke 12-4
 2. North Carolina 11-5
 3. Wake Forest 10-6
 4. North Carolina State 9-7
 5. Maryland 9-7
 6. Florida State 8-8
 7. Virginia 6-10
 8. Georgia Tech 5-11
 9. Clemson 2-14

Comments:

   Every team from 1 to 7 could finish in a different order, though I expect the top three teams in my rotation will be very good unless injuries strike.  Any of teams 4-6 could easily sneak into the top three of the league, and even Virginia could be very good if they get some breaks.  Duke's scoring power among its top six players and overall balance may give them a slight edge.  UNC has the most potent four players in the league, which on some nights will enable them to beat anyone in the country and on other nights be a problem if someone has an off-game.  All Wake needs is a proven wing scorer to challenge for first place and national prominence.  Losing Josh Powell pushed State out of that top rank of the conference's hierarchy, but returning a healthy Ilian Evtimov could push them back, especially with the best all-around player in the conference in Julius Hodge.  Maryland has almost no proven players on their roster, but they do have a very proven coach in Gary Williams, and he knows how to mold talent.  If he comes up with the right answers this season, the Terps could finish much higher.  Leonard Hamilton has a deep and talented team that needs to learn how to win, but they could also crack the upper division.  Virginia will sorely miss Travis Watson, but improved team athleticism could vault them into the postseason.  Georgia Tech will have no inside game at all, but playing small ball with their solid scoring lineup could produce some upsets.  Clemson will struggle against all of the talent in the league, but better days are ahead with Oliver Purnell.

  Rob's ACC Teams & Awards:

1st Team:

Raymond Felton, UNC
Rashad McCants, UNC
Julius Hodge, NC State
Elton Brown, Virginia
Eric Williams, Wake Forest

2nd Team:

Tim Pickett, FSU
JJ Redick, Duke
Jawad Williams, UNC
Vytas Danelius, Wake Forest
Shelden Williams, Duke

3rd Team:

Chris Duhon, Duke
BJ Elder, Georgia Tech
Anthony Richardson, FSU
Ilian Evtimov, NC State
Sean May, UNC

Others Considered: Luol Deng, Dan Ewing & Shavlik Randolph, Duke; Justin Gray & Chris Paul, Wake Forest; Diego Romero & Von Wafer, FSU; Scooter Sherrill, NC State; Jarrett Jack & Marvin Lewis, Georgia Tech; Chey Christie, Clemson; John Gilchrist & Jamar Smith, Maryland; Todd Billett, Virginia

All-Rookie:

Chris Paul, Wake Forest
Mike Jones, Maryland
Luol Deng, Duke
Diego Romero, FSU
Alexander Johnson, FSU

Others Considered: Von Wafer, FSU; Engin Atsur, NC State; Ekene Ibekwe, Maryland; Gary Forbes, Virginia; Reyshawn Terry, UNC

 

 POY:

 Julius Hodge, NC State

 

 ROY:

 Luol Deng, Duke

 

COY:

Leonard Hamilton, FSU

 

All-ACC Defensive Team:

Tim Pickett, FSU
Julius Hodge, NC State
Chris Duhon, Duke
Raymond Felton, UNC
Jamaal Levy, Wake Forest

 

ACC DPOY:

Tim Pickett, FSU

 

Strength of Schedule:  This is determined by ranking each out of conference opponent in one of four tiers: Marquee Matchup (RPI top 40), High-Major (RPI 41-100), Mid-Major (100-200) and Tune-Up (over 200). Marquee Matchups are awarded three points apiece, High-Majors 1 point, Mid-Majors 0 points and Tune-Ups -0.5 points.  A bonus of +0.5 is awarded for every true road game (tournaments don't count unless a team is playing the home team on their own court).  These numbers are totalled and then divided by the number of games played to balance things out across all teams.  This system favors teams willing to play the best in the country, favors teams willing to go on the road, and punishes those who schedule lightweight teams.  It is possible to get a good score by loading up on High-Major and Low-Major squads with few, if any, Marquee Matchups, but this usually corresponds to a lack of Tune-Ups on the schedule anyway.

 1. Wake Forest (1.23)
 2. Duke (1.04)
 3. UNC (.95)
 4. Clemson (.9)
 5. NC State (.77)
 6. Georgia Tech (.72)
 7. Maryland (.68)
 8. Florida State (.43)
 9. Virginia (.04)

Rob Clough's ACC Previews:

#1 - Duke
#2 - North Carolina
#3 - Wake Forest
#4 - NC State
#5 - Maryland
#6 - Florida State
#7 - Virginia
#8 - Georgia Tech
#9 - Clemson

     Rob's Archive

 

Rob is a thirty four year old Duke grad who's been an ACC fan since he was nine years old, when a young Duke team was beaten in the finals by Kentucky.  Since that time, he has been fascinated by the entire league and started writing volumes on it in rec.sport.basketball.college and other electronic forums in 1991.  Recently, he has been writing ACC analyses for Jazzy J's About.com site and regularly contributes features on women's basketball for the Duke Basketball Report.