This Week in Duke Basketball
January 31, 2006

Wow.  A lot of ground to cover, with four games in a relatively short period of time.  All in all, it was a useful learning period, and even Duke's first loss of the year wasn't especially harmful.  Happily, the Hoyas have kept up their success since pitching a metaphoric perfect game against Duke, and that loss doesn’t hurt Duke in the ACC.  The three other wins were all by double figures, but in most respects were a bit closer than that.  JJ Redick has further extended his legend, averaging around 34 ppg during this stretch.  But what Duke really learned is that they desperately needed DeMarcus Nelson to return. I couldn't help but watch Georgetown's rangy & mobile big men and wonder how Nelson’s presence could have served to give Duke another defender and rebounder.  Duke simply couldn't handle the Hoyas cutting inside and close out on their shooters.  While Georgetown shot unusually well from the perimeter in this game, this was something that Duke should have been able to adjust to. Indeed, Duke benefited from Clemson shooting unusually poorly from the foul line; a team has to be able to find ways to disrupt opponents.

Let's begin with Duke's win over NC State.  A number of folks compared this game to Duke's win over Indiana, and the comparison is instructive.  Both teams have lethal three point shooting but aren't necessarily going to hurt you with dribble penetration.  Coach K gambled that by isolating Shelden Williams on their big man, they'd be able to shut down everything else.  Of course, NC State and Indiana run things a bit differently.  State is a little less athletic, but they run a more fluid offense.  They like to use their forwards to penetrate and draw defenders in, so as to create open shots for their spot up shooters.  Indiana prefers to use skip passes to get quick threes or get open shots if opponents tried to double-team the post.  It's K's philosophy to try to take away what opponents like to do most, and he was quite willing to give up the occasional two instead of giving up a three, especially if Duke’s pressure forces the usual number of turnovers.

Against State, soph Cedric Simmons had a career-best game against Shelden Williams, with 28 points.  Of course, only 11 were in the second half, and a small handful came down the stretch, as Shelden played him tighter and tighter. Coach K stayed with the let-Simmons-roam strategy in the first half because Duke was able to maintain a slim lead most of the way.  Despite Simmons having his way inside, Shelden played fairly well, racking up 7 points, 5 assists and 4 steals in the half.  Redick scored 12 points but took 11 shots to get there. He did find other ways to contribute, dishing out 3 assists in the first half. But the big surprise in the first half was Lee Melchionni, who nailed 3-5 from three on his way to 11 points.  Duke stretched out their lead to 33-26 late in the first half before State finished up with an 8-0 run.  The Devils missed a number of threes, and State was able to patiently work their offense and get some scores. 

The two teams battled evenly in the second half, as Simmons kept up the pressure on Duke.  Williams got the ball early on for Duke, scoring 6 points in the first four minutes of the half.  He later outletted to Paulus for a driving three point play.  Duke eventually went up 56-50, but State went on an 8-0 run. The Pack actually went up 62-58 thanks to 4 more points by Simmons.  Redick hit a crucial jumper (only Duke's second score in a five-minute span) and then found Williams on a lob to tie things up.  Simmons hit a cutting Gavin Grant for a score, but Redick sank a three to put Duke back on top for good at 65-64.  That triggered a game-ending 19-4 run for Duke.  State tied it up at 65, but then came the back-breaking plays made by two Duke seniors. 

Of course, those seniors were Melchionni and Dockery.  Lee hit Dockery for a three plus the foul.  Dock missed the foul shot, grabbed the rebound, and immediately passed to Lee for a three.  That put Duke up by 6 with under five minutes to go.  Williams came up with a steal and hit 2 free throws.  State started to melt down a bit, missing 3 free throws.  Shelden then drew an offensive foul from Simmons, who was swinging his elbows in an effort to rid himself of Shelden's pressure.  Shelden then blocked Simmons inside as Duke was trying to protect a 5 point lead.  Dockery got the rebound and Greg Paulus nailed 2 free throws with less than a minute left.  It was free throws all the way down from there, as Duke survived a gritty opponent.  Thankfully, State’s smaller lineup was ideal for a Duke team that started Melchionni instead of Josh McRoberts (who was used sparingly).  The Devils have been in a number of close games this year, and that big-game experience certainly helped them down the stretch, especially in Cameron. 

Of course, it wasn't difficult for Duke to get up against a rival with a great conference record.  They seemed less prepared against a non-conference rival that was eager to strut their stuff on national TV in Georgetown.  The Hoyas have a huge front line, but beyond that, their forwards were big, mobile and accurate from long range.  Running the Princeton offense, the Hoyas caught Duke looking with their bigs cutting to the basket like guards.  On the defensive end, the Hoyas completely shut down Shelden Williams, who didn't work hard enough on using a counter move and put up way too many weak shots inside. 

Georgetown blew out to an early 18-8 lead, but Duke went ahead 22-20 thanks to Redick scoring 10 points in about four minutes.  However, the Devils would score just 8 points in the last eight minutes of the half.  Jeff Greene did the most damage, but the Hoyas as a team shot an absurd 67% against the Devils. Redick had 18 of Duke's 28 points, shooting 6-11 from the field. 

In the second half, Duke wasn't stopping the Hoyas, but they were at least trading 2 for 3.  Melchionni, Paulus and Redick each had a three, while Redick also drove in for a three point play.  Redick later drove in and flipped in a reverse lay-up while being fouled.  A three point play by Paulus cut the margin to 10, and the margin stayed there for a few minutes.  With less than six minutes to go, Redick hit a three to cut the margin to 6.  Redick stole the ball and missed, but Jamal Boykin tipped it in.  Redick then hit a baseline jumper and Shelden took a charge.  Redick dished to Williams to make it 74-72.  The Hoyas responded by scoring 5 in a row, but Duke kept hanging on.  Dockery scored 8late points to keep the pressure on, but the Hoyas kept responding.  Dock did cut the lead to 2 with fewer than ten seconds left, and a missed free throw left the door open for Duke.  However, Paulus turned the ball over in the final seconds of the game. 

Redick scored 41 points, tying a career high.  In the end, it just wasn’t enough.  Williams was held to just 4 points (though he did have 11 rebounds) and no one could stop Hoyas from scoring.  They shot 61%, an unheard-of number against Duke's defense.  It was clear that the small lineup wasn't working, and that Duke would have to retool in the future.  There were other problems: Duke’s end-game play was sloppy at best, and the team reacted poorly to Georgetown’s penetration.  An attempt at going to a match-up zone wound up giving Georgetown all the open looks at three that they wanted.  The problem for Duke was that they weren't succeeding at what they normally do well (pressure the ball), and so their chances of success at what they don't normally do (using an effective zone) seemed slim.  Even when Duke was turning over the Hoyas during their furious comeback, Georgetown still made enough plays to win. 

The game against Virginia Tech had Duke in a seemingly precarious situation: a road game in a building they lost in last year, against a team that had them beaten in Durham, against an enraged fan base.  It can be argued pretty convincingly that Duke had not played their hardest against VT, but the Hokies certainly had no shortage of motivation against Duke.  Of course, coming off a loss, Duke was certain to be more focused against their next opponent. Psychology aside, Duke had a big plus against VT: the return of DeMarcus Nelson.  Now, Nelson is a fine offensive player who will be a bit rusty for awhile as he adjusts to the rhythm of the game.  But he doesn't ever show rust at the defensive end.  Even when the stats don't seem all that impressive, his very presence creates a chain reaction in Duke's defense, allowing other players to fall into more natural defensive roles. 

What Nelson brings on defense is a player who can defend virtually any position, from point guard to power forward.  His strength and long arms allow him to front opponents without being pushed away easily.  This allows Duke to rest Williams at center, especially now that Coach K is letting McRoberts get some minutes at that spot.  With Nelson playing next to him, he has a fine defender and rebounder to help him. 

Virginia Tech spread the court in Duke's last second-win, drawing Williams out.  Duke has struggled with dribble penetration for much of the season, because the younger players have difficulty rotating quickly enough to stop it. That forces Coach K to use players like Melchionni out of position; Lee is serviceable at wing but woefully outmatched inside or against very quick players.  There are times when the other players depend on Shelden too much to erase defensive mistakes, and it's put a strain on him. 

In this game, Coach K decided to go back to McRoberts and give him another opportunity inside.  That paid immediate dividends, as Josh scored on a dunk and an aggressive post-up.  Meanwhile, Greg Paulus was doing a nice job delivering the ball inside.  More than any other player, he needed to go to “next play" after making some mistakes against Georgetown.  Duke blew out to leads of 8-2 and 16-9.  An inspired VT squad, desperate for their first ACC win, rallied each time to come close.  Each time, Duke would respond: a 6-0 run after VT pulled within 10-9, and a 7-2 run after it was 16-13. 

Paulus rallied Duke back after that, hitting Redick for a three and Williams inside, while nailing a 15' jumper in transition.  Duke slowly built up their lead, even in the face of a furious struggle from VT.  Williams had 10 points in the last ten minutes of the half.  Nelson was another x-factor, scoring on a lob, a 15' jumper and a three.  He helped Duke to a 13 point lead at the half. 

The Devils came out and delivered a knockout punch in the second half, going on a 13-3 run to push their lead past 20 points.  Duke kept their cool while Virginia last theirs, as a technical foul on VT helped the Devils make their run.  The Hokies didn't let Duke go any further, staying even for the next five minutes before going on a 10-2 run to come within 64-51 with under seven minutes left.  The Hokies knew that they could come back on Duke, since they did it in Durham, but they would need the Devils to cooperate by making some mistakes. 

In Durham, JJ Redick did not play well against Virginia Tech.  Even in this game, he had been pressing a bit.  With seven minutes left, he "only" had 16points.  But after VT pulled within 13, JJ hit a tough fade away jumper. McRoberts stepped up as well, finding Williams inside and then converting a pass from Redick.  VT had one last run in them, pulling within 12 points with three minutes left.  This time around, Duke managed the clock well and hit their free throws, starting with Williams.  Duke got a couple of key offensive rebounds down the stretch to shorten the game even further.  Dockery converted a lay-up, Redick hit 2 free throws, and JJ then finished off the game and the hostile crowd with a lay-up. 

This was far from a perfect game for Duke.  They had 16 turnovers, which helped VT get back into the game at various points.  Worse, Duke only forced 9turnovers, getting just 3 steals.  The Devils did make up for it by dominating the boards.  Williams had a monster game overall, with 24 points and 15rebounds.  Lee Melchionni had 7 rebounds of his own, while McRoberts had a solid overall game with 8 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. 

Next up for Duke was Virginia, overachieving in the ACC at 4-2.  The Cavs have one of the best point guards in the league in Sean Singletary, which had to worry the Devils considering their troubles with dribble penetration.  Virginia certainly wasn't ready for the punch Duke was going to throw at them to start the game.  Redick was feeling feisty and scored 11 points in Duke's initial20-2 run.  The Cavs regained their footing and played Duke even for the next seven minutes.  Duke certainly helped out with 15 turnovers, including a combined 7 for Redick and Williams.  For the game, the opportunistic and plucky Cavs scored 18 points off turnovers and 21 fast break points. 

Duke led 33-16 with less than four minutes left in the half, but UVa went on an8-0 run to suddenly cut the lead to single digits.  But Williams hit a tough turnaround basket with time running out to halt Virginia's momentum.  The Cavs kept things even to start out the second half, but the Devils went on a 14-3run to salt the game away.  Redick sank 2 threes, Dock hit a three, and a Redick steal led to Williams passing to McRoberts for a dunk and the foul. Nelson finished the run off with a drive to make it 53-30 five minutes into the half. 

Six straight points from Redick and a Marty Pocius drive pushed the lead up to 29.  It was a good thing they did, because the relentless but short-handed Virginia squad went on a 15-3 run.  Once again, Redick broke the run with that fadeaway jumper of his.  It was pretty much free throws all the way down, with the exception of a Shelden Williams three with the shot clock running down. 

The Devils stopped turning the ball over in the second half, got to the foul line 18 times, and shot 55% for the game.  Virginia hung in as best they could, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds and outrebounding Duke by 3.  Despite that, there was never any real danger for Duke.  Still, this isn't a Duke team that's firing on all cylinders just yet. 

Redick and Williams are as solid as ever.  Shelden had yet another double-double and was close to another triple-double.  Redick dropped 40 points on Virginia on an astonishing 13 shots.  McRoberts had another decent outing with 9 points, but he's still not yet close to being a consistent force.  One senses that he may be on the verge of turning the corner, however.  Melchionni has battled back from a gimpy ankle, and while his scoring is up and down, his defense has been scrappy.  Dockery redoubled his efforts on defense after being beaten against Georgetown, while Nelson is another defensive terror for Duke. When Dockery got in serious foul trouble, the versatile Nelson simply moved over to guard Singletary. 

At the moment, Pocius and Boykin aren't playing much.  K has trimmed the rotation to 7 with Nelson back, but he has been willing to give them spot minutes.  While I don't think either will get significant minutes this year, look for both to make appearances when foul trouble piles up, among other situations. 

Duke still has 6 road games left in the regular season, including trips to Chestnut Hill, College Park and Chapel Hill coming up in the next couple of weeks.  Though the Devils are 7-0, there's a lot of work still ahead of them.