The most brutal stretch of Duke's schedule is over,
and the Blue Devils came out of it not only getting wins, but also getting significant
improvements from players not named Redick and Williams.
In a way, getting wins against UNC and Maryland was easier than against FSU and BC. Duke matched up better against the Heels and Terps,
and it was much easier to get up emotionally against them.
In terms of matchups, the physical styles and athleticism at wing of the
'noles and Eagles gave Duke everything they could handle.
While both UNC and Maryland have good players, neither team had an
overwhelming matchup difficulty that they could throw at Duke. The Devils did a nice job of focusing against
hostile and loud crowds. Against UNC, they
overcame being knocked back in the second half, absorbing the blow, launching a
counterattack and then holding on for dear life. Against
Maryland, Duke corrected some of the late-game errors
that had plagued them in recent weeks and methodically put the Terps away.
 Of special note in these two games is the
play of Duke's "other" three starters: Josh McRoberts, Greg Paulus and Sean
Dockery. That trio has had their ups and downs
this season, but there's an expectation now that they must produce in every game. At minimum, that means playing consistent defense
(preferably causing turnovers). For Paulus and
Dockery, this means taking and making open shots with confidence, as well as driving to
the hole when the opportunity presents itself, along with finding the open man. For McRoberts, this means getting rebounds and
attacking the basket. Let's look at their play
in the last couple of games.
Dockery has been averaging 14.5 ppg the last
couple of games. Thanks to Redick, Dockery has
gotten some wide-open looks at the basket and has responded by hitting 7 of 10 threes. Against UNC, Dock did most of his damage late in
the first half and early in the second. He
sank 2 threes and drove for one of his floaters to help Duke take a lead into halftime,
and then nailed another three and passed to McRoberts for a dunk to put Duke up by 17. When UNC took the lead, he gave it back to Duke
with another three. He made a couple of
critical errors down the stretch when he missed 2 foul shots and then immediately fouled
to put the Heels on the line, but that shouldn't overshadow how many big shots he did hit. Against Maryland, he started off hot, sinking 2 quick threes as
the Terps were blanketing Redick. In the
second half, he scored on a floater to halt a Maryland mini-run, then drained a killshot three to
put Duke up by 11 with over a minute left. At
this point, Sean should never hesitate to take an open shot that comes within the flow of
the offense, especially when Redick drops it off for him.
The balance for him right now is continue to play with a lot of energy on
defense while looking for his shot.
Paulus is in a tough spot as a frosh. He's trying to set up his teammates and play with
both daring and wisdom. He has to guard
players who are often bigger, stronger, quicker or some combination thereof. At the same time, he's being asked to look for his
own shot more often. While Paulus is blessed with uncanny floor vision, everything else
has presented him with a steep learning curve. Against
UNC, he had some strong moments. His 7 assists
included passes for threes by McRoberts and Dockery, as well as dishes inside to Josh and
Shelden Williams. In the middle of the first
half, Greg also had consecutive strong drives to the hoop for scores, which surprised
everyone. When things got crazy down the
stretch, Paulus got his hands on the ball, got fouled and calmly nailed both to give Duke
a 3 point lead with seconds left. This was a
sure sign of his maturity, given the free throws he missed in recent games.
Against Maryland, he came out firing from behind the arc, and
surprised the Terps by sinking 3 threes in the first ten minutes of the game. The fact that the Terps couldn't simply leave him
alone altered their entire defensive scheme, and helped Redick get more open shots later
in the game. Of course, he made a point of
finding Williams inside repeatedly, getting the big man lots of easy shots. In the second half, he hit another three after the
Terps started to creep back into the game, looking immensely confident. He was whistled for a couple of push-offs, but that
didn't prevent him from staying aggressive. Greg will continue to have his ups and downs
and make mistakes, but above all he has to stay aggressive.
McRoberts has at times been the most
frustrating of the three regulars. Even when
Dockery and Paulus struggle on offense, they do at least have skills that make invaluable
on the floor. McRoberts, while displaying
immense potential, hasn't shown that one skill that would keep him on the floor even when
he isn't scoring. That's a function of a few
factors. It's tough for young posts at times
to learn how to play defense without fouling, especially when Duke plays three guards in
the starting lineup. There isn't a Nate James or Shane Battier starting at wing who can help him
out if he misses his man. Another factor has
been a sore back that has kept him a bit more earthbound.
Not being able to unleash his athleticism has made him look ordinary. The last issue is simply confidence. When a player struggles, it can take a while before
they're comfortable enough to take risks and expect for things to go well, not just hope
that they'll go well.
While Josh has struggled the most of this
group, his reversal of fortunes has certainly been the most dramatic. He was nothing short of dominant against UNC. He scored on an early dunk, and later dunked a
rebound and created a score by posting up and twisting in over Tyler Hansbrough. Josh showed his quickness by finishing a cut. In the second half, he was the centerpiece of
Duke's initial push. Dockery tossed him a
little lob pass that Josh dunked behind his head. Paulus
then passed him the ball behind the three point line and McRoberts confidently stroked the
trey. I don't think it's any coincidence that
UNC started their big comeback when McRoberts went to the bench with four fouls. Interestingly, I expected Josh to struggle in his
matchup with David Noel, the kind of long wing who can shoot that's made things difficult
for him this year. Instead, Josh used his size
advantage to punish the Heels inside. Josh not only managed to avoid fouling out, he came
back to hit 4 crucial free throws. The first
pair snapped a tie, and the second was even more significant. Hansbrough went to the line with over a minute left
with a chance to cut the lead to 2. He missed
both, Josh grabbed the board, got fouled and then calmly sank both.
In some respects, his showing against Maryland was more impressive. He obviously struggled
offensively, missing all 6 of his field goal attempts and just 2 of 5 free throws. In other games, a poor offensive showing would have
affected the rest of his performance. Not this
time. Josh was dominant on the boards, outwrestling the Terps for 12 rebounds. He also hit
Redick on a nice bounce pass for a score, showing off his own sharp court vision. The one area where Josh continues to struggle is
fouls. While he isn't fouling out, he's
getting too many cheap fouls in an effort to display his commitment to defense. That can't stop him from continuing to go after
rebounds and attacking the hoop, but he must be patient.
He has to realize that his teammates will get him the ball, and so he
doesn't need to do too much unnecessary dribbling. Of
all Duke's players, there's no ceiling as to what McRoberts can do. Ideally, one would
like to see him average around 10 and 10, hit 75% of his free throws and play solid
defense. This is certainly within his reach.
There's been a lot of talk of Duke trying to
find a third scorer. I think what's more
important than finding a third regular scorer is improving the team's overall scoring
balance. The presence of Williams and Redick
means that other players will get open looks. Rather
than find a single additional scorer, Duke needs all three of them to put themselves into
position to score when they have opportunities--and there's no question that they've had
and will have opportunities. If teams are
packing it in down low, this means  Dockery and Paulus will have open looks. If opponents are jamming shooters, McRoberts should
be able to fly in for some dunks. What the
game against Georgetown taught the team is that Redick can't do it all himself, or even
Redick plus Williams. The two games this week
wouldn't have been victories if it wasn't for those "other" guys, and it's
important that they understand this and use it to fuel their confidence for the stretch
run.
The Carolina game is always an emotional
event. Duke controlled the first twelve
minutes of the game, thanks to McRoberts and Redick. Redick had 8 points without a single
three, including a steal and layup that looked like an Alana Beard play. McRoberts had 6 points, while Paulus scored 4 in a
row to give Duke an 11 point lead. The Heels
pulled within a point, but Dockery scored 8 late points to boost Duke to a 40-35 halftime
lead. The scoring was nice and balanced for
Duke, with four players getting at least 7 points and Redick picking up 13. The problem area for Duke was turnovers. While they turned UNC over 10 times, the Devils
coughed it up 11 times. Considering that Duke
shot over 50% in the half, losing the ball that many teams prevented Duke from taking a
commanding lead.
The Devils began the second half with a
smoking 12-0 run, forcing 4 turnovers. Redick
had another steal and runout and hit a baseline jumper, McRoberts had his reverse dunk and
a three, and Dockery put Duke up by 17 with a three. Roy
Williams rolled the dice by benching his starters and bringing in a "blue team",
and their intensity knocked back Duke's starters. One
could sense that the Devils thought the game was over and didn't take UNC's subs
seriously, and they paid for that mistake. A
52-35 lead suddenly turned into a 54-49 lead, with Duke holding on for dear life. Redick took over the game with a driving bank shot,
a three and yet another steal & runout to give Duke a double digit lead at 61-51 with
ten minutes left.
The Heels came roaring back with a 10-0 run. That was triggered by a possession where they
scored after getting 4 offensive rebounds. A
couple of misses and turnovers were converted by UNC into scores. McRoberts halted the run
with 2 freebies, but the Heels kept coming. They took a lead and extended it to 4 with
five minutes left, but DeMarcus Nelson scored his only basket of the game to keep Duke in
range. The Heels went up by 5 but Redick
nailed a huge three and hit 2 free throws to tie things up.
Hansbrough scored on an offensive rebound, but Redick found Dockery for that
big three. The teams traded free throws before
Williams blocked a shot and Duke controlled the rebound.
Shelden then dished to Redick who sank another enormous trey to put Duke up by 4.
Those two missed foul shots by Hansbrough were followed up by McRoberts
hitting 2. After UNC hit 2 foul shots, Redick
responded with what should have been a killshot 3 with over a minute left to put Duke up
7. UNC scored quickly and Dockery missed those
foul shots, and the Heels took advantage to cut the lead to 3. Redick threw the ball away trying to find Paulus,
and the Heels cut the lead to 1 with 30 seconds left.
Paulus then got the ball after Redick nearly threw it away again and was
fouled, calmly hitting both. The Heels had
plenty of time to get a three, but a mixup wound up finding Danny Green driving and
missing a two-pointer. Williams got the board
and sank a free throw to salt the game away.
Duke was pounded on the boards by UNC,
especially offensively. Everyone on the team was in foul trouble, and the result was them
backing off after missed shots for fear of getting called for the push-off. Duke countered this somewhat by forcing 21
turnovers, but 16 of their own made things a bit dicey. Four players in double figures
plus another superhuman game from Redick (35 points).
The execution down the stretch was far from ideal, but the bottom line is
that Duke picked up another road win in the ACC.
The Devils crushed Maryland in their first
meeting, and since that time Chris McCray flunked out of school. The Terps bounced back, with Mike Jones playing
well after being elevated to starter. Right
now, Maryland is a bubble team and they needed a win against the Devils to boost their
resume.
There was one crucial factor that
helped Duke in their game against the Terps: Maryland was never able to capture the lead. When a team is down the entire game, especially at
home, getting a lead is often the impetus that enables them to get over the hump. It gets the crowd going and gives the team a
different kind of energy. It requires so much
energy to come back from a deficit, and it's difficult for most teams to maintain that
energy for 40 minutes, much less a team that's struggling.
This edition of the Terps is lacking a post
man who commands defensive respect. Furthermore,
they didn't have a big who could significantly slow down Shelden Williams. They do at least have depth in the post, which they
threw at Duke, and nice depth overall. Plus
Nik Caner-Medley always has good games against Duke, providing matchup problems.
The Terps didn't want JJ Redick going off on
them. To that end, they used DJ Strawberry to
face guard him and sometimes switched over Caner-Medley to bother him. JJ didn't force things and trusted his teammates to
hit shots. Did they ever! Williams tore the Terps apart for 6 quick points,
taking advantage of disorganization for easy slams. Dockery and Paulus hit
back-to-back-to-back threes to give Duke a 7 point lead.
That three possession lead was what Duke had for most of the game. The Terps would creep a bit closer, then Williams
would get a dunk or Paulus another three. Redick's
first shot was a 30' three that made it 21-14.
Maryland crept within 23-20, but a Redick cut
and Paulus' third three made it 9. Once again,
Maryland cut it to 5, but two more dunks by Williams spurred a 9-0 run. The Terps chopped that lead in half with over a
minute left in the half. Free throws by Redick
and Paulus kept Duke ahead, but it was just a 4 point lead at the half. JJ really turned up the heat late in the half,
scoring all 11 of his points in the last thirteen minutes of the half. Williams and Paulus also had 11. Shelden and Josh
both picked up some first half fouls (1 for Shelden, 2 for Josh). Coach K elected to keep both on the bench
(inserting Patrick Johnson!) for much of the last five minutes of the half in order to
protect them, and Maryland took advantage. It
would prove to be a wise gamble.
 Duke started the half on a 11-4 run. Shelden scored 4 and JJ had 5, including a fast
break three and a short jumper. That
reestablished Duke's working margin at around 11, and the Terps struggled to get closer. Redick continued to pour it on, hitting another
fast break three and a stepback 15' footer that also drew a foul. Duke built its lead up to 14 or 15 before the Terps
managed to cut it to 10 three times. Each
time, Duke responded: a three by Paulus, a floater by Dockery, a stickback by Williams. With under three minutes left, the Terps finally
got under 10 points. Redick hit 2 freebies,
but Maryland hit a three to make it 8 points with under two minutes left. Dockery hit a huge three in response, and that was
pretty much it. It was free throws all the way
down from there, and Duke avoided silly fouls and turnovers.
The Devils outrebounded the Terps thanks to
12 from McRoberts, 13 from Williams and a surprising 6 apiece from Melchionni and Nelson.
Offensively, Lee has almost completely disappeared, but he still hustles like crazy when
he's in there. Duke also did a nice job of
getting to the foul line and converting once they got there.
Maryland got plenty of looks at the foul line themselves with 31 tries but
only 20 makes. Duke gets a bit of a break with two home games this week. Wake has struggled but is still dangerous with
Justin Gray and Eric Williams, while Miami remains a borderline NCAA team and is looking
to get a signature win. Duke has not been
overwhelmingly dominant at home at times and has to show the kind of focus and intensity
over 40 minutes that they've been displaying on the road of late.
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